Reads as: riskier than 94.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
DERGANCE JEANNAE
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.56
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.33
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.65
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
128.6
2.56
0.33
0.53
1.70
2.33
0.0%
2025Q3
92
123.8
2.74
0.30
0.54
1.90
2.52
0.0%
2025Q2
91
123.7
2.55
0.32
0.50
1.73
2.31
0.0%
2025Q1
90
115.8
2.71
0.37
0.54
1.80
2.56
0.0%
2024Q4
92
120.3
2.62
0.34
0.45
1.83
2.35
0.0%
2024Q3
92
123.7
2.26
0.40
0.40
1.46
1.97
0.0%
2024Q2
91
126.4
2.15
0.39
0.42
1.34
1.89
0.0%
2024Q1
91
120.4
2.33
0.59
0.29
1.45
1.99
0.0%
2023Q4
92
124.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
2023Q3
92
120.5
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
2023Q2
91
118.6
2.74
0.82
0.16
1.76
2.21
0.0%
2023Q1
90
124.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
2022Q4
92
123.8
1.87
0.50
0.08
1.28
1.49
0.0%
2022Q3
92
121.1
1.88
0.64
0.08
1.16
1.67
0.0%
2022Q2
91
120.0
2.21
0.73
0.02
1.46
1.89
0.0%
2022Q1
90
120.2
2.29
0.83
0.00
1.46
2.02
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-12-05
2025-12-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-05
2025-04-25
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0559
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
F
2025-04-26
2025-04-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-04-26
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
L
2024-12-12
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
F
2025-01-04
2024-10-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-09-25
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0603
Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room).
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0675
Honor each resident's preferences, choices, values and beliefs.
K
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
L
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
F
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
F
2024-05-24
2023-12-19
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
G
2024-01-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JUNIPER PARK, LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2010-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, PATRICIA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
COPPERHILL ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
FALCON CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
BRENEMAN, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
CDEBACA, MERINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
DERGANCE, JEANNAE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DONATO, LINDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-31
current
pecos_ownership
HASTINGS, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER COMMUNTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER MANAGEMENT, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER PARTNERS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER PARTNERS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER PARTNERS, LLC
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
KATZMANN, LYNN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
LOPEZ, MARIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEVARES, DARRIUS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-13
current
pecos_ownership
NUGENT, KEITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-21
current
pecos_ownership
ORNDOFF, TAMARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, PATRICIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
PRESSLER, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
PURCELL, AMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
SPILLANE, TINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES POITRAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA POITRAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2013-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY PURCELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-07-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES HASTINGS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2010-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD BRENEMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-07-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN KATZMANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRIUS NEVARES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES POITRAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANNAE DERGANCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH NUGENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA DONATO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIE LOPEZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MERINA CDEBACA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-03-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA POITRAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE PRESSLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMARA ORNDOFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA SPILLANE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$385,041
—
$385,041
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$419,869
—
$419,869
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$299,167
—
$13,829
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$251,914
—
$251,914
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$325,636
—
$325,636
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08031
acs median gross
0
$1,564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
2
$2,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
3
$2,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
4
$2,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
5
$2,591
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
acs median gross
$1,831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
acs recent mover gross
$1,948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
0
$1,608
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
1
$1,806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
2
$2,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
3
$3,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
5
$2,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs median gross
$1,970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80211
acs recent mover gross
$2,054
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80211
payment standard 110
0
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 90
0
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
safmr
0
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 110
1
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 90
1
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
safmr
1
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 110
2
$2,794
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 90
2
$2,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
safmr
2
$2,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 110
3
$3,652
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 90
3
$2,988
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
safmr
3
$3,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 110
4
$4,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
payment standard 90
4
$3,339
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80211
safmr
4
$3,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.