31 WEST MARYLAND AVENUE, PHOENIX, AZ 85013 · CCN 035247 · chain PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
Composite
13.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
58
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 13.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
THE PROVIDENCE GROUPS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.51
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.20
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.64
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
56.5
3.51
0.26
1.03
2.23
3.20
16.3%
2025Q3
92
57.0
3.23
0.27
0.97
1.99
2.97
11.4%
2025Q2
91
54.4
3.27
0.27
0.94
2.06
3.08
10.7%
2025Q1
90
54.8
3.56
0.37
0.91
2.29
3.30
16.1%
2024Q4
92
54.6
3.46
0.40
0.81
2.25
3.22
14.0%
2024Q3
92
53.2
3.33
0.37
0.81
2.16
3.09
12.5%
2024Q2
91
47.8
3.35
0.28
1.04
2.02
3.12
15.7%
2024Q1
91
46.1
3.32
0.17
1.10
2.05
3.14
10.0%
2023Q4
92
45.3
3.34
0.17
1.13
2.03
3.12
0.0%
2023Q3
92
41.2
3.48
0.29
1.18
2.01
3.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
37.1
4.42
0.34
1.33
2.75
3.88
0.0%
2023Q1
90
36.8
3.49
0.05
1.28
2.16
3.53
0.0%
2022Q4
92
37.9
3.21
0.08
1.27
1.87
3.39
0.0%
2022Q3
92
40.9
2.96
0.07
1.17
1.72
3.05
0.0%
2022Q2
91
44.8
2.74
0.09
1.04
1.61
2.79
0.0%
2022Q1
90
41.9
2.85
0.09
1.09
1.67
2.85
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
25
D × 19E × 6
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-01-23
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-03-24
2025-01-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-24
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-02-28
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2025-02-28
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-02-28
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-02-28
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-01-31
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-01-31
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2025-01-31
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0920
Provide at least one room set aside to use as a resident dining room and for activities, that is a good size, with good lighting, air flow and furniture.
E
2025-01-31
2024-08-27
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-10-04
2024-07-12
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-08-30
2023-03-10
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-05-10
2023-03-10
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2023-05-10
2023-03-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-10
2022-02-25
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2022-03-31
2022-02-25
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2022-03-31
2022-02-25
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-03-31
2022-02-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-03-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
9
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARROLL, KEITH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH CARROLL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$474,578
—
$474,578
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$441,695
—
$441,695
—
—
1
—
2023-02-28
$103,554
—
$103,554
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$621,321
—
$621,321
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$580,387
—
$457,517
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$126,964
—
$126,964
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
0
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
1
$1,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
2
$1,873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
3
$1,836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
4
$955
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs median gross
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85013
acs recent mover gross
$1,973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85013
payment standard 110
0
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 90
0
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
safmr
0
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 110
1
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 90
1
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
safmr
1
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 110
2
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 90
2
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
safmr
2
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 110
3
$2,915
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 90
3
$2,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
safmr
3
$2,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85013
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.