Reads as: riskier than 34.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
FREUND NOCHUM
109 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
TRAVITSKY AARON
106 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
DAGAN AMITAI
101 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM
100 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
102 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
TRAVITSKY AARON
153 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
111 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.86
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.10
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.68
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.94
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.5
2.86
0.10
0.89
1.88
2.68
0.0%
2025Q3
92
50.1
3.25
0.09
0.88
2.29
3.08
0.0%
2025Q2
91
54.4
3.03
0.12
0.89
2.02
2.77
0.0%
2025Q1
90
56.7
2.67
0.07
0.80
1.79
2.63
3.6%
2024Q4
92
55.5
2.67
0.04
0.80
1.83
2.63
6.5%
2024Q3
92
57.7
2.98
0.05
0.85
2.07
2.77
8.0%
2024Q2
91
55.8
2.83
0.09
0.80
1.94
2.77
17.4%
2024Q1
91
56.6
2.31
0.00
0.85
1.46
2.26
22.7%
2023Q4
92
59.6
2.17
0.07
0.78
1.32
2.13
42.1%
2023Q3
92
60.2
1.92
0.02
0.77
1.14
1.85
50.6%
2023Q2
91
62.5
1.93
0.00
0.72
1.21
1.84
30.4%
2023Q1
90
59.0
2.00
0.10
0.66
1.25
1.77
36.7%
2022Q4
92
52.8
2.27
0.08
0.79
1.40
2.06
31.1%
2022Q3
92
50.6
2.21
0.09
0.75
1.36
2.13
26.4%
2022Q2
91
53.4
2.51
0.16
0.77
1.58
2.33
12.1%
2022Q1
90
56.6
2.50
0.12
0.79
1.60
2.20
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 5E × 4F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-25
2025-02-19
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-20
2025-02-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-02-20
2024-09-13
Health · complaint
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-08-26
2024-09-13
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-09-14
2024-01-19
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-01-20
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-11-18
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-11-18
2023-10-23
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2023-11-21
2022-10-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-10-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
507 W JACKSON ST OPCO, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
507 W JACKSON ST OPCO, LLC
—
—
2025-08-05
current
tx_hhsc_directory
507 W JACKSON ST PROPERTY OWNER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAGAN, AMITAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
DOERING, CLYDE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FREUND, NOCHUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, ABRAHAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, TIMOTHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-08-05
current
tx_hhsc_directory
SHEPPERD, MILTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEPPERD, MILTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRAVITSKY, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURNET SENIOR CARE, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE COOK
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2017-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK COOK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2017-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE DERRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2015-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY KELTZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2015-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BURNET SENIOR CARE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE COOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLYDE DOERING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK COOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK COOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRK RODDIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SCHAFFNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MILTON SHEPPERD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY JONES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48053
fmr
0
$969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48053
acs median gross
1
$991
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48053
fmr
1
$997
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48053
acs median gross
2
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48053
fmr
2
$1,247
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48053
acs median gross
3
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48053
fmr
3
$1,645
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48053
acs median gross
4
$1,202
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48053
fmr
4
$1,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48053
acs median gross
$1,319
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48053
acs recent mover gross
$1,627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
0
$525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
1
$710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
2
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
3
$1,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
4
$1,491
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs median gross
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78611
acs recent mover gross
$683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78611
payment standard 110
0
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 90
0
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
safmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 110
1
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 90
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
safmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 110
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 90
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
safmr
2
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 110
4
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
payment standard 90
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78611
safmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.