Reads as: riskier than 15.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.55
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.31
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.64
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
45.1
3.55
0.35
0.90
2.29
3.31
24.4%
2025Q3
92
52.5
3.00
0.19
0.85
1.96
2.73
27.4%
2025Q2
91
46.6
3.07
0.21
0.85
2.00
2.79
20.4%
2025Q1
90
47.9
2.90
0.37
0.69
1.85
2.71
25.1%
2024Q4
92
50.6
2.83
0.35
0.62
1.85
2.68
15.6%
2024Q3
92
49.5
3.09
0.35
0.71
2.03
2.90
20.5%
2024Q2
91
49.5
3.16
0.38
0.67
2.11
2.86
33.0%
2024Q1
91
50.7
3.03
0.25
0.79
1.99
2.63
37.9%
2023Q4
92
52.8
2.87
0.35
0.56
1.95
2.56
28.1%
2023Q3
92
50.2
2.77
0.65
0.49
1.63
2.57
24.9%
2023Q2
91
51.9
2.58
0.71
0.46
1.41
2.22
29.5%
2023Q1
90
55.8
2.24
0.65
0.29
1.30
2.00
20.1%
2022Q4
92
57.4
2.66
0.74
0.24
1.69
2.45
21.2%
2022Q3
92
58.9
2.96
0.47
0.54
1.94
2.83
34.6%
2022Q2
91
58.6
2.71
0.19
0.65
1.87
2.35
28.3%
2022Q1
90
54.1
2.15
0.15
0.63
1.37
2.06
13.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 5E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-08
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-08
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2026-02-06
2026-01-08
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2026-02-06
2026-01-08
Health
F0926
Have policies on smoking.
E
2026-02-06
2025-01-15
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-02-04
2024-11-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-12-24
2024-11-19
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-12-24
2024-10-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HEALTHCARE MGMNT PRO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
55%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HEALTHCARE MGMNT PRO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
55%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
COLLINS, JESSICA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, JESSICA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, JILLIAN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, JOSHUA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
CREATIVE CARE INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
CREATIVE CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
EDWARDS, JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
EDWARDS, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
HARMAN, ERNEST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINGENFELTER, FRED
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAPIER, PIERRE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAPIER, PIERRE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, KRISTEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, KRISTEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, KRISTEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, KRISTEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
OVERSON, SARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TERRY, SANDRA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHCARE MGMNT PRO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
55%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HEALTHCARE MGMNT PRO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
55%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HEALTHCARE MGMNT PRO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
55%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FRED LINGENFELTER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA TERRY
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA OVERSON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JILLIAN COLLINS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA COLLINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2017-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA COLLINS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA COLLINS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN OTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERNEST HARMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON EDWARDS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON EDWARDS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN OTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN OTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN OTT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PIERRE NAPIER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PIERRE NAPIER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$135,661
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2023-12-31
$133,779
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2022-12-31
$145,955
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2021-12-31
$164,443
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2020-12-31
$158,983
—
—
—
—
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04015
acs median gross
0
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
fmr
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04015
acs median gross
1
$873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
fmr
1
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04015
acs median gross
2
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
fmr
2
$1,365
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04015
acs median gross
3
$1,344
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
fmr
3
$1,897
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04015
acs median gross
4
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
fmr
4
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04015
acs median gross
5
$2,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
acs median gross
$1,091
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04015
acs recent mover gross
$1,299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs median gross
0
$1,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs median gross
1
$900
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs median gross
2
$978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs median gross
3
$1,345
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs median gross
$1,123
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 86401
acs recent mover gross
$2,028
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 86401
payment standard 110
0
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 90
0
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
safmr
0
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 110
1
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 90
1
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
safmr
1
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 110
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 90
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
safmr
2
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 110
3
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 90
3
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
safmr
3
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 110
4
$2,354
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
payment standard 90
4
$1,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 86401
safmr
4
$2,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.