Reads as: riskier than 45.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.62
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.10
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.35
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.73
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
126.2
3.62
0.10
0.99
2.53
3.35
0.0%
2025Q3
92
124.5
3.56
0.08
1.01
2.46
3.34
0.0%
2025Q2
91
123.9
3.43
0.10
0.93
2.41
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
115.1
3.64
0.12
0.98
2.54
3.51
0.0%
2024Q4
92
114.2
3.62
0.11
1.01
2.49
3.58
0.0%
2024Q3
92
111.2
3.71
0.11
1.03
2.58
3.65
0.0%
2024Q2
91
111.3
3.54
0.11
1.04
2.39
3.43
0.0%
2024Q1
91
111.7
3.61
0.12
1.01
2.47
3.54
0.0%
2023Q4
92
111.0
3.67
0.18
1.01
2.48
3.45
0.0%
2023Q3
92
112.3
3.52
0.15
0.98
2.40
3.38
0.0%
2023Q2
91
114.4
3.54
0.17
0.95
2.41
3.39
0.0%
2023Q1
90
113.5
3.55
0.15
0.96
2.44
3.37
0.0%
2022Q4
92
114.5
3.15
0.15
0.97
2.04
3.10
0.0%
2022Q3
92
109.2
3.12
0.18
0.99
1.95
2.88
0.0%
2022Q2
91
107.2
3.02
0.18
0.98
1.86
2.90
0.0%
2022Q1
90
109.8
3.14
0.17
1.02
1.96
3.00
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
C × 1D × 7E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-25
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2026-04-17
2025-02-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-03-03
2025-02-05
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-03-03
2025-02-05
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-03-03
2025-02-05
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2025-03-03
2025-02-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-03-03
2025-02-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-03
2024-08-28
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-09-24
2024-03-13
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-04-05
2024-03-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-04-05
2024-03-13
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
E
2024-04-05
2024-03-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-04-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COMMCARE CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1994-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORD, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARDNER, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARVEY PSARELLIS, DAWN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUDSON, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
LUNDBERG, ALEC
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANGUN, GAROLD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
MANGUN, GAROLD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PLAISANCE, WAYNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRECHTER, PATRICIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRECHTER, PATRICIA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRECHTER, PATRICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKER, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALEC LUNDBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAROLD MANGUN
CORPORATE OFFICER
25%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL FORD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA PRECHTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
25%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA PRECHTER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
25%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WAYNE PLAISANCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN HARVEY PSARELLIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
20%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE GARDNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
20%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES TUCKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
20%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAROLD MANGUN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY HUDSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA PRECHTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$1,629,657
$1,148,677
—
$244,646
$88,087
3
—
2024-06-30
$1,430,359
—
—
$219,086
$68,778
3
—
2023-06-30
$966,856
$624,891
—
—
$80,161
4
—
2022-06-30
$834,231
$297,001
—
$242,978
$74,995
3
—
2021-06-30
$449,373
—
—
$238,558
$76,058
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22033
acs median gross
0
$1,003
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
fmr
0
$1,032
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22033
acs median gross
1
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
fmr
1
$1,064
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22033
acs median gross
2
$1,139
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
fmr
2
$1,204
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22033
acs median gross
3
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
fmr
3
$1,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22033
acs median gross
4
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
fmr
4
$1,943
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22033
acs median gross
5
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
acs median gross
$1,147
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22033
acs recent mover gross
$1,156
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70817
acs median gross
1
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70817
acs median gross
2
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70817
acs median gross
3
$2,076
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70817
acs median gross
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70817
acs recent mover gross
$1,213
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70817
payment standard 110
0
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 90
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
safmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 110
1
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 90
1
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
safmr
1
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 110
2
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 90
2
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
safmr
2
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 110
3
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 90
3
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
safmr
3
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 110
4
$2,508
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
payment standard 90
4
$2,052
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70817
safmr
4
$2,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.