Reads as: riskier than 28.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.56
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.66
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.33
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.65
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.7
3.56
0.66
0.72
2.18
3.33
0.0%
2025Q3
92
101.9
3.61
0.59
0.78
2.24
3.37
0.0%
2025Q2
91
108.9
3.53
0.55
0.81
2.17
3.31
0.0%
2025Q1
90
108.2
3.50
0.48
0.87
2.15
3.22
0.0%
2024Q4
92
106.2
3.50
0.48
0.86
2.16
3.25
0.0%
2024Q3
92
108.9
3.50
0.46
0.86
2.17
3.21
0.0%
2024Q2
91
107.7
3.55
0.46
0.86
2.23
3.26
0.0%
2024Q1
91
110.7
3.57
0.47
0.83
2.27
3.28
0.0%
2023Q4
92
111.2
3.50
0.46
0.79
2.25
3.26
0.0%
2023Q3
92
105.5
3.42
0.46
0.80
2.16
3.19
0.0%
2023Q2
91
104.8
3.45
0.51
0.76
2.19
3.22
0.0%
2023Q1
90
101.2
3.46
0.52
0.70
2.23
3.22
0.0%
2022Q4
92
97.7
3.48
0.50
0.76
2.22
3.20
0.0%
2022Q3
92
96.0
3.38
0.35
0.76
2.27
3.33
0.0%
2022Q2
91
95.5
3.40
0.20
0.91
2.29
3.40
0.0%
2022Q1
90
93.1
3.76
0.12
1.03
2.61
3.68
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-07-22
2025-06-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-07-22
2025-02-20
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-20
2023-11-09
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-12-09
2023-11-09
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-12-09
2023-11-09
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-12-09
2023-11-09
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-12-09
2023-11-09
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-12-09
2022-07-14
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2022-08-08
2022-07-14
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2022-08-08
2022-07-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-08-08
2022-07-14
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-08-08
2022-07-14
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2022-08-08
2022-07-14
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2022-08-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BELL, CHARLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
BERKADIA COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2015-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
CHERY, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST 2015 FAMILY TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL TIFFANY HALL HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2009-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH SERVICES PROPERTIES LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2009-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN J NOTERMANN BUSINESS TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
KAAR, SUSAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANGINE, JOHN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MELTON, DONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, BRENDA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-28
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'SULLIVAN, DIANNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-28
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE DISBURSEMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2003-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
TEJEDA, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN MANGINE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2012-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL TEJEDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN CHERY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-06-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANNE O'SULLIVAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-12-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD MELTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE KELLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN KAAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM NOTERMANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$489,893
—
$489,893
—
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$452,584
—
$452,584
—
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$357,662
—
$357,662
—
—
6
—
2021-12-31
$356,278
—
$356,278
—
—
6
—
2020-12-31
$333,413
—
$333,413
—
—
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12111
acs median gross
0
$1,263
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
fmr
0
$1,455
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12111
acs median gross
1
$1,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
fmr
1
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12111
acs median gross
2
$1,479
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
fmr
2
$1,757
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12111
acs median gross
3
$1,838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
fmr
3
$2,421
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12111
acs median gross
4
$2,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
fmr
4
$2,579
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12111
acs median gross
5
$1,855
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
acs median gross
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12111
acs recent mover gross
$2,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
0
$1,892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
1
$1,496
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
2
$1,700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
3
$1,933
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
4
$3,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs median gross
$1,767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34952
acs recent mover gross
$2,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34952
payment standard 110
0
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 90
0
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
safmr
0
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 110
1
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 90
1
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
safmr
1
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 110
2
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 90
2
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
safmr
2
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 110
3
$2,849
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 90
3
$2,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
safmr
3
$2,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 110
4
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
payment standard 90
4
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34952
safmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.