Composite
18.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 59.6 | 50.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.75 | in index |
| chow risk | 77.3 | 58.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.92 | in index |
| financial risk | 23.0 | 29.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.31 | in index |
| staffing risk | 25.4 | 25.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 4.88 | in index |
| billing conduct | 11.3 | 10.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.61 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 10.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 61.3 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 29.2 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 50.8 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 25.5 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.6 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.2 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 50.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 50.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 25.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.77 | -0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.76 | -0.14 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 11.00 | -0.61 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.76 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.42 | +0.17 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.76 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.52 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.86 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 55.3 | 3.76 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 2.46 | 3.52 | 0.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 56.8 | 4.04 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 2.80 | 3.61 | 0.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 59.6 | 3.21 | 0.16 | 0.67 | 2.38 | 3.13 | 0.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 63.0 | 3.97 | 0.49 | 0.81 | 2.66 | 3.72 | 1.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 59.9 | 3.35 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 2.48 | 3.34 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 60.9 | 3.52 | 0.29 | 0.83 | 2.40 | 3.43 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 58.7 | 3.80 | 0.36 | 0.93 | 2.50 | 3.68 | 1.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 62.6 | 3.73 | 0.31 | 0.96 | 2.46 | 3.54 | 3.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 62.5 | 3.51 | 0.27 | 0.89 | 2.35 | 3.48 | 12.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 74.2 | 3.11 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 2.03 | 3.04 | 14.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 60.6 | 3.77 | 0.38 | 0.96 | 2.43 | 3.71 | 10.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 61.9 | 3.69 | 0.37 | 0.95 | 2.37 | 3.67 | 1.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 61.2 | 3.81 | 0.41 | 1.03 | 2.37 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 61.8 | 3.72 | 0.40 | 0.99 | 2.33 | 3.63 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-01-30 |
| 2026-01-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-01-30 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-01-13 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2026-01-13 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-01-13 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-01-13 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2026-01-13 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2025-09-23 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-09-23 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-09-23 |
| 2025-08-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-09-20 |
| 2025-05-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-06-17 |
| 2025-05-16 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0603 | Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room). | D | 2025-03-05 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-11-15 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-12-08 |
| 2024-09-19 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-19 | Health · complaint | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-19 | Health · complaint | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-07-30 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2024-08-20 |
| 2024-07-30 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-08-20 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2024-05-16 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-05-16 |
| 2024-04-09 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-04-22 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-01-31 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | E | 2024-01-12 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-10-22 |
| 2023-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-09-14 |
| 2023-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-09-14 |
| 2023-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-09-14 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2023-07-28 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BARRON, PAUL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| PAUL BARRON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,499 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,840 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,208 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,429 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,282 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90026 | acs median gross | $1,929 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 90026 | acs recent mover gross | $2,186 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,266 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,854 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | safmr | 0 | $2,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,541 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,079 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | safmr | 1 | $2,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,168 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,592 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | safmr | 2 | $2,880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,015 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,285 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | safmr | 3 | $3,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,477 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,663 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90026 | safmr | 4 | $4,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |