Reads as: riskier than 21.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.43
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.07
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.31
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.48
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
113.9
3.43
0.07
1.14
2.21
3.31
0.0%
2025Q3
92
111.7
3.38
0.06
1.13
2.20
3.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
112.0
3.35
0.16
1.02
2.17
3.25
0.0%
2025Q1
90
108.6
3.33
0.11
1.07
2.15
3.34
0.0%
2024Q4
92
112.5
3.30
0.14
1.05
2.10
3.27
0.0%
2024Q3
92
109.1
3.40
0.08
1.12
2.21
3.40
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.7
3.33
0.14
1.00
2.19
3.30
0.0%
2024Q1
91
110.8
3.35
0.16
1.01
2.18
3.28
0.0%
2023Q4
92
109.5
3.24
0.14
0.95
2.15
3.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
111.4
3.22
0.17
0.95
2.10
3.15
0.0%
2023Q2
91
111.6
3.23
0.11
0.96
2.16
3.23
0.0%
2023Q1
90
111.7
3.21
0.11
0.94
2.15
3.15
0.0%
2022Q4
92
112.9
3.28
0.11
1.00
2.17
3.25
5.8%
2022Q3
92
112.6
3.27
0.18
0.97
2.12
3.34
31.7%
2022Q2
91
113.4
3.21
0.21
0.85
2.15
3.10
37.1%
2022Q1
90
102.2
3.53
0.21
0.87
2.45
3.40
34.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 9E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-24
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
E
2026-04-24
2026-02-24
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-04-24
2026-02-24
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2026-04-24
2025-05-22
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-06-11
2024-02-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-03-16
2024-02-16
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-03-16
2022-11-03
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-12-02
2022-11-03
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2022-12-05
2022-11-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-12-05
2022-11-03
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2022-12-05
2022-11-03
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2022-12-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LILAC SNF HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PANAMA CITY FL HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PANAMA CITY FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PANAMA CITY FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GORELICK, BATYA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
SCARBOROUGH, THERESA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PANAMA CITY FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HC FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PANAMA CITY FL PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-09-30
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALEX TERENTEV
OTHER
—
2021-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BATYA GORELICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THERESA SCARBOROUGH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,229,187
—
$686,140
$850,373
$74,992
14
propco
2023-12-31
$2,796,143
—
$474,628
$770,288
$62,363
12
propco
2022-12-31
$2,468,922
—
$487,752
$668,548
—
13
propco
2021-12-31
$855,754
—
$115,507
$194,597
—
12
propco
2021-09-29
$36,750
—
$23,652
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$118,242
—
$70,957
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12005
acs median gross
0
$1,248
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
fmr
0
$1,426
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12005
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
fmr
1
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12005
acs median gross
2
$1,415
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
fmr
2
$1,682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12005
acs median gross
3
$1,684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
fmr
3
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12005
acs median gross
4
$2,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
fmr
4
$2,689
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12005
acs median gross
5
$2,295
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
acs median gross
$1,484
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12005
acs recent mover gross
$1,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
0
$1,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
1
$1,478
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
2
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
3
$1,593
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
4
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs median gross
$1,467
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32405
acs recent mover gross
$1,569
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32405
payment standard 110
0
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 90
0
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
safmr
0
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 110
2
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 90
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
safmr
2
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 110
3
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 90
3
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
safmr
3
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 110
4
$2,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
payment standard 90
4
$2,448
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32405
safmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.