Composite
45.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 57.8 | 48.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.34 | in index |
| billing conduct | 52.4 | 40.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.09 | in index |
| staffing risk | 60.3 | 60.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 11.60 | in index |
| financial risk | 40.3 | 39.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.30 | in index |
| chow risk | 5.7 | 12.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 0.66 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 0.2 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 39.7 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 48.3 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 60.3 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 85.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 65.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.3 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 41.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 48.1 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 48.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 60.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 60.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.41 | -1.51 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.46 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.41 | -0.25 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.13 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.91 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.21 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 51.5 | 3.13 | 0.29 | 0.80 | 2.04 | 2.91 | 7.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 50.4 | 3.04 | 0.28 | 0.82 | 1.94 | 2.86 | 4.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 49.9 | 3.04 | 0.29 | 0.85 | 1.90 | 2.77 | 2.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 52.2 | 3.10 | 0.26 | 0.89 | 1.95 | 2.94 | 7.7% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 49.4 | 2.95 | 0.15 | 0.88 | 1.92 | 2.62 | 10.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 51.4 | 2.90 | 0.13 | 0.93 | 1.84 | 2.71 | 12.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 48.6 | 2.87 | 0.16 | 0.91 | 1.80 | 2.59 | 10.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 51.9 | 2.74 | 0.19 | 0.82 | 1.73 | 2.23 | 13.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 48.7 | 2.37 | 0.14 | 0.83 | 1.40 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 49.6 | 1.95 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 1.12 | 1.61 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 46.8 | 1.88 | 0.14 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 1.69 | 18.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 50.4 | 1.58 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 0.86 | 1.44 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 53.6 | 2.69 | 0.18 | 0.93 | 1.58 | 2.62 | 28.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 50.5 | 2.86 | 0.23 | 0.94 | 1.69 | 2.85 | 24.3% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 52.3 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 0.94 | 1.77 | 2.88 | 25.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 54.2 | 2.73 | 0.08 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 2.59 | 22.9% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-13 | Fine | $8,492 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-03-01 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2023-10-24 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-12-15 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2023-10-24 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-10-24 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-10-24 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | G | 2023-10-24 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2021-09-01 |
| 2021-07-29 | Health | F0840 | Employ or obtain outside professional resources to provide services in the nursing home when the facility does not employ a qualified professional to furnish a required service. | D | 2021-09-01 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| 2018-11-01 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2018-12-07 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA 3 OPCO HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VA3 PROPCO | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BSD EOM IRREVOCABLE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HLHK IRREVOCABLE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SOUTH EAST VIRGINIA HOLD CO LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VOGUE NHC LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARTSTEIN, JAKE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MONTFORDD, NICOLA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JAKE HARTSTEIN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICOLA MONTFORDD | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-01 | — | THREE RIVERS SNF OPERATIONS LLC | WEST POINT SNF OPERATIONS LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51101 | fmr | 0 | $1,442 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51101 | fmr | 1 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51101 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,025 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51101 | fmr | 2 | $1,655 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51101 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,317 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51101 | fmr | 3 | $2,072 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51101 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,381 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51101 | fmr | 4 | $2,553 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51101 | acs median gross | $1,166 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 23181 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,000 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 23181 | acs median gross | 3 | $884 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 23181 | acs median gross | $1,184 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | safmr | 0 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,296 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | safmr | 1 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,422 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | safmr | 2 | $1,580 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,178 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,782 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | safmr | 3 | $1,980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,196 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 23181 | safmr | 4 | $2,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |