Composite
48.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 87.5 | 57.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.19 | in index |
| financial risk | 61.6 | 53.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.22 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 39.1 | 28.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.02 | in index |
| staffing risk | 14.3 | 14.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.75 | in index |
| chow risk | 14.3 | 18.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 1.65 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 57.8 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.3 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 13.5 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 53.4 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 28.2 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 14.4 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 66.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.9 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.5 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 28.0 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 28.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.4 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 14.4 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.13 | -0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | +0.14 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.13 | -0.38 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.62 | -0.31 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.56 | -0.29 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.13 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.85 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.24 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 49.9 | 4.13 | 0.38 | 1.23 | 2.52 | 3.85 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 52.8 | 4.11 | 0.39 | 1.21 | 2.51 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 51.7 | 4.06 | 0.36 | 1.22 | 2.49 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 52.0 | 4.33 | 0.35 | 1.28 | 2.70 | 3.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 49.1 | 4.75 | 0.38 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 4.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 50.8 | 4.72 | 0.34 | 1.42 | 2.96 | 4.06 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 50.2 | 4.73 | 0.30 | 1.45 | 2.98 | 4.05 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 52.1 | 4.74 | 0.45 | 1.28 | 3.01 | 4.03 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 52.0 | 4.58 | 0.44 | 1.18 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 49.3 | 4.75 | 0.45 | 1.40 | 2.90 | 4.08 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 48.3 | 4.69 | 0.48 | 1.37 | 2.84 | 4.05 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 59.8 | 4.08 | 0.32 | 1.23 | 2.54 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 49.8 | 4.83 | 0.36 | 1.40 | 3.07 | 4.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 52.7 | 4.66 | 0.34 | 1.39 | 2.93 | 4.11 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 51.0 | 4.98 | 0.38 | 1.52 | 3.09 | 4.26 | 0.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 51.4 | 5.08 | 0.40 | 1.62 | 3.06 | 4.53 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-08-20 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-08-20 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2025-06-27 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-06-27 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-06-27 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-06-27 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | — |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-19 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-09-19 |
| 2024-08-06 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-08-27 |
| 2024-04-12 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-05-01 |
| 2024-04-12 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-12 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-05-03 |
| 2024-04-12 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-05-03 |
| 2024-04-12 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-05-03 |
| 2024-04-04 | Health · complaint | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-04-09 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2024-03-11 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-03-11 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0885 | Report COVID19 data to residents and families. | D | 2024-03-11 |
| 2024-02-06 | Health · complaint | F0624 | Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home. | D | 2024-02-14 |
| 2023-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-07-14 |
| 2023-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-07-14 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2021-07-26 |
| 2021-07-02 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2021-07-26 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAHS HOLDING INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DALY, JEFFREY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-03-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ELLIS-SHERINIAN, JAMES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JERGENSEN, JEREMY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2018-03-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEET, RYAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2019-05-13 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LUNDQUIST, VICTOR | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-03-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NAHS EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NAHS SOUTHEAST, INC. | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY DALY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-03-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEREMY JERGENSEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2018-03-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| VICTOR LUNDQUIST | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-03-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES ELLIS-SHERINIAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN LEET | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-05-13 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,372 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | fmr | 0 | $1,692 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,440 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | fmr | 1 | $1,777 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | fmr | 2 | $2,201 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,166 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | fmr | 3 | $2,912 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,666 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | fmr | 4 | $3,514 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,157 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06065 | acs median gross | $1,901 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06065 | acs recent mover gross | $2,268 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,334 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,536 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,899 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,549 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,519 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92503 | acs median gross | $1,884 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92503 | acs recent mover gross | $2,393 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,665 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | safmr | 0 | $1,850 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,746 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | safmr | 1 | $1,940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | safmr | 2 | $2,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,498 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,862 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | safmr | 3 | $3,180 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,213 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,447 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92503 | safmr | 4 | $3,830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |