Composite
37.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 87.0 | 57.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.08 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 41.3 | 30.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.53 | in index |
| staffing risk | 40.9 | 41.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 7.87 | in index |
| financial risk | 23.4 | 29.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.40 | in index |
| chow risk | 8.5 | 12.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 0.98 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 57.4 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.5 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 0.5 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 29.5 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 30.3 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 41.0 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 78.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 34.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 30.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 30.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.0 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 4.33 | -1.43 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.89 | -0.08 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 4.33 | -0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.44 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.00 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.61 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 114.7 | 3.44 | 0.12 | 0.79 | 2.53 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 118.3 | 3.45 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 2.53 | 3.06 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 120.1 | 3.44 | 0.19 | 0.70 | 2.55 | 3.02 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 116.9 | 3.56 | 0.18 | 0.80 | 2.59 | 3.22 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 118.7 | 3.74 | 0.11 | 0.89 | 2.74 | 3.37 | 2.1% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 106.2 | 3.92 | 0.12 | 1.04 | 2.75 | 3.58 | 2.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 104.5 | 3.98 | 0.11 | 1.11 | 2.76 | 3.63 | 5.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 107.7 | 3.37 | 0.12 | 0.94 | 2.31 | 3.20 | 5.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 101.8 | 3.54 | 0.17 | 0.93 | 2.44 | 3.35 | 3.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 109.4 | 3.40 | 0.08 | 0.89 | 2.43 | 3.06 | 1.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 108.6 | 3.40 | 0.10 | 0.89 | 2.42 | 2.97 | 5.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 106.3 | 3.29 | 0.09 | 0.94 | 2.27 | 2.92 | 9.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 112.6 | 3.19 | 0.08 | 0.94 | 2.17 | 2.77 | 9.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 105.9 | 3.50 | 0.06 | 0.97 | 2.46 | 3.16 | 3.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 105.7 | 3.62 | 0.05 | 0.93 | 2.64 | 2.99 | 1.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 101.6 | 3.70 | 0.15 | 0.95 | 2.60 | 2.97 | 0.4% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-09-13 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-09-13 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-09-13 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2025-09-13 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-09-13 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-09-13 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-12-30 |
| 2024-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-30 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-03-24 |
| 2023-03-03 | Health | F0888 | Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19 | B | 2023-03-03 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICHARDS ROAD REALTY LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 30% | 2024-07-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| RICHARDS ROAD REALTY LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 30% | 2023-07-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-03-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HAYES, ROBIN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARDS ROAD REALTY LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-03-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THESSING, JEFFREY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-03-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARDS ROAD REALTY LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 30% | 2022-03-31 | ended 2022-06-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| RICHARDS ROAD REALTY LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 30% | 2022-07-01 | ended 2023-06-30 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| JACOB TAUB | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 28% | 2022-03-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ALEXANDER HOFFMAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 28% | 2022-03-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ISAAC GUTMAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 28% | 2022-03-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHAIM HERZBERG | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 15% | 2022-03-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY THESSING | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-03-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBIN HAYES | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-31 | — | PREMIER WELLNESS LLC | SOMERSET SENIOR LIVING AT PREMIER | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 0 | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 0 | $984 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 1 | $904 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 1 | $989 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,062 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 2 | $1,147 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,262 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,539 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | fmr | 4 | $1,822 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,219 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05119 | acs median gross | $1,080 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05119 | acs recent mover gross | $1,166 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72117 | acs median gross | 2 | $821 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72117 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,162 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72117 | acs median gross | $1,092 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72117 | acs recent mover gross | $1,059 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,155 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $945 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | safmr | 0 | $1,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | safmr | 1 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,107 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | safmr | 2 | $1,230 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,815 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | safmr | 3 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,145 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,755 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72117 | safmr | 4 | $1,950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |