1506 NORTH MAIN STREET, COLUMBIA, MS 39429 · CCN 255227 · chain NEXION HEALTH INC
Composite
33.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
119
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 33.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
18
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.4 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.8 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH LEASING INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
HERDRICH WILLIAM
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
BOLT BRETTON
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
KIRLEY FRANCIS
49 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH LEASING INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BOLT BRETTON
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.29
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.06
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
90.1
3.29
0.06
0.91
2.31
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
85.8
3.21
0.08
0.97
2.16
3.11
0.0%
2025Q2
91
82.8
3.16
0.05
0.97
2.13
3.06
0.0%
2025Q1
90
81.7
3.29
0.07
0.97
2.25
3.15
0.0%
2024Q4
92
82.9
3.17
0.01
1.02
2.14
3.04
0.0%
2024Q3
92
84.8
3.06
0.02
1.00
2.05
2.89
0.0%
2024Q2
91
85.0
2.84
0.02
0.96
1.87
2.65
0.0%
2024Q1
91
82.1
2.71
0.05
1.01
1.66
2.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
75.1
2.73
0.02
0.97
1.73
2.62
0.0%
2023Q3
92
68.8
2.92
0.04
1.09
1.79
2.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
73.1
3.28
0.02
1.03
2.22
3.08
0.0%
2023Q1
90
73.6
3.03
0.08
0.98
1.97
2.95
0.1%
2022Q4
92
72.6
2.94
0.05
1.03
1.85
2.94
2.8%
2022Q3
92
69.1
3.33
0.05
1.21
2.06
3.28
0.0%
2022Q2
91
71.3
3.57
0.15
1.06
2.37
3.40
0.0%
2022Q1
90
75.2
3.70
0.08
1.07
2.55
3.63
1.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 10
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-11
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-10-29
2025-09-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-10-29
2025-09-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-10-29
2025-09-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-10-29
2025-09-11
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2025-10-29
2025-09-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-10-29
2024-05-09
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-06-21
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-12-21
2023-06-16
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-08-07
2022-06-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-07-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
BOLT, BRETTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
CARPENTER, SHAWN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERDRICH, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
KIRLEY, FRANCIS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, BRIAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH LEASING, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
RINER, MEERA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
SHAWN CARPENTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANCIS KIRLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
61%
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETTON BOLT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN LEE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEERA RINER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM HERDRICH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$499,096
—
—
—
$88,252
0
—
2023-12-31
$446,085
—
—
—
$72,519
0
—
2022-12-31
$424,235
—
—
—
$75,830
0
—
2021-12-31
$479,125
—
—
—
$65,419
0
—
2020-12-31
$629,297
—
—
—
$103,059
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28091
fmr
0
$651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28091
fmr
1
$655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28091
acs median gross
2
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28091
fmr
2
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28091
acs median gross
3
$598
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28091
fmr
3
$1,031
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28091
acs median gross
4
$1,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28091
fmr
4
$1,366
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28091
acs median gross
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28091
acs recent mover gross
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39429
acs median gross
2
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39429
acs median gross
3
$607
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39429
acs median gross
$806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39429
acs recent mover gross
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 39429
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39429
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.