Screener / 415097

Mansion Nursing and Rehab Center

snfRI

104 Clay Street, Central Falls, RI 02863 · CCN 415097

Composite

28.7 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 28.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model4 Components15 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies28 Licensure0 Ownership10 Related party1 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent30

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
staffing risk	72.2	72.2	0.25	0.2500	18.05	in index
regulatory risk	34.5	24.2	0.30	0.3000	10.35	in index
financial risk	28.4	32.9	0.30	0.3000	8.52	in index
chow risk	22.1	22.2	0.15	0.1500	3.32	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
chow risk	24.9	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	19.6	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	32.9	B	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.5	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	3.4	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	24.2	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	72.2	D	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	61.2	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	41.2	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	41.9	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	38.3	B	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	24.1	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	24.1	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	72.2	D	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	72.2	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

3.4%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

80.5

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	0.00	-0.40
Occupancy	0.80	-0.29
Contract staffing share	0.24	+0.27
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.5%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

74.0

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Chain size (log)	0.00	+1.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	3.00	+0.87
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Occupancy	0.80	-0.21
Contract staffing share	0.24	+0.18
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	RI median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	2.95	3.22	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.36	0.53	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	2.90	3.04	3.11	—
Weekday total	2.97	3.28	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	49.5	2.95	0.36	0.38	2.22	2.90	23.9%
2025Q3	92	51.2	3.13	0.43	0.40	2.31	2.94	22.6%
2025Q2	91	53.6	2.83	0.34	0.35	2.15	2.65	18.3%
2025Q1	90	53.3	2.95	0.33	0.33	2.29	2.85	15.9%
2024Q4	92	51.9	3.08	0.36	0.43	2.29	3.01	13.4%
2024Q3	92	53.6	2.92	0.34	0.43	2.16	2.75	16.9%
2024Q2	91	51.3	2.97	0.35	0.41	2.21	2.95	15.8%
2024Q1	91	54.0	2.94	0.35	0.39	2.19	2.87	16.4%
2023Q4	92	52.6	2.92	0.44	0.33	2.16	2.83	8.3%
2023Q3	92	52.2	2.80	0.48	0.36	1.96	2.55	4.3%
2023Q2	91	53.1	2.73	0.56	0.25	1.92	2.52	5.8%
2023Q1	90	51.9	2.94	0.44	0.39	2.10	2.72	28.0%
2022Q4	92	50.9	2.87	0.44	0.39	2.05	2.66	28.5%
2022Q3	92	55.4	2.49	0.46	0.27	1.75	2.34	28.0%
2022Q2	91	54.8	2.60	0.45	0.30	1.85	2.42	20.5%
2022Q1	90	54.8	2.71	0.48	0.33	1.89	2.57	17.5%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

B × 5C × 1D × 9E × 8F × 5

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2026-01-21	Health · complaint	F0658	Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.	E	2026-02-20
2025-12-16	Health · complaint	F0628	Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.	D	2026-01-15
2025-12-16	Health · complaint	F0760	Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.	D	2026-01-15
2025-07-18	Health	F0569	Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.	B	2025-08-17
2025-07-18	Health	F0740	Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.	D	2025-08-17
2025-07-18	Health	F0756	Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.	E	2025-08-17
2025-07-18	Health	F0757	Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.	D	2025-08-17
2025-07-18	Health	F0867	Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.	F	2025-08-17
2024-07-05	Health	F0567	Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.	B	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0568	Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.	B	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0569	Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.	B	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0583	Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.	B	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0658	Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.	D	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0761	Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.	E	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	F	2024-08-04
2024-07-05	Health	F0921	Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.	E	2024-08-04
2023-08-29	Health · complaint	F0584	Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.	D	2023-09-28
2023-07-21	Health · complaint	F0658	Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.	D	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0710	Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care.	E	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0838	Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.	F	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	E	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0942	Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents.	E	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0943	Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.	E	2023-08-20
2023-07-21	Health	F0944	Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.	C	2023-08-20
2023-06-06	Health · complaint	F0658	Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.	D	2023-07-06

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
CHOPOORIAN, JOHN	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	50%	—	current	pecos_ownership
CHOPOORIAN, JOHN	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2007-12-28	current	pecos_ownership
CHOPOORIAN, TERESA	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2007-12-28	current	pecos_ownership
CHOPOORIAN, TERESA	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	—	current	pecos_ownership
MANSION, INC	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2007-12-28	current	pecos_ownership
JOHN CHOPOORIAN	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	50%	—	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MANSION PROPERTIES	Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization	50%	2020-01-01	ended 2020-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
TERESA CHOPOORIAN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	50%	—	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOHN CHOPOORIAN	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2007-12-28	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
TERESA CHOPOORIAN	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2007-12-28	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2020-12-31	$23,000	$23,000	—	—	—	2	propco

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — RI snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-06-01	Cedar Haven Operations LLC DBA Lake Forrest Health	—	—	—	133	CEDAR HAVEN OPERATIONS LLC
2025-05-23	Warren Operations RI, LLC DBA Warren Center	—	—	—	63	WARREN OPERATIONS RI LLC
2025-02-01	Adviniacare Providence Dodge Rehab Center, LLC	—	—	—	161	ADVINIACARE PROVIDENCE DODGE REHAB CENTER LLC
2025-02-01	Adviniacare Pawtucket Pleasant Rehab Center, LLC	—	—	—	129	ADVINIACARE PAWTUCKET PLEASANT REHAB CENTER LLC
2024-01-31	The Friendly Home	—	—	—	126	FRIENDLY EDEN OPERATIONS LLC
2024-01-01	Pawtucket Falls Healthcare Center	—	—	—	154	VIOLET SNF HOLDCO LLC
2022-11-01	Riverview Healthcare Community	—	—	—	190	RIVERVIEW OPERATOR LLC
2022-11-01	Morgan Health Center	—	—	—	120	MORGAN OPERATOR LLC
2022-11-01	Westerly Health Center	—	—	—	120	WESTERLY OPERATOR LLC
2022-11-01	Heritage Hills Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	—	—	—	100	HERITAGE HILLS OPERATOR LLC
2022-08-19	South County Eden Operations LLC DBA Lakeside Nurs	—	—	—	120	SOUTH COUNTY EDEN OPERATIONS LLC
2022-06-07	Brentwood Health Center	—	—	—	96	4000 POST ROAD EDEN OPERATIONS LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 44007	acs median gross	0	$963	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross	1	$952	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross	2	$1,397	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross	3	$1,597	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross	4	$1,647	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross	5	$1,808	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs median gross		$1,312	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 44007	acs recent mover gross		$1,677	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross	0	$707	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross	1	$835	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross	2	$1,165	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross	3	$1,421	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross	4	$1,094	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs median gross		$1,200	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 02863	acs recent mover gross		$1,677	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 02863	payment standard 110	0	$1,254	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 90	0	$1,026	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	safmr	0	$1,140	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 110	1	$1,342	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 90	1	$1,098	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	safmr	1	$1,220	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 110	2	$1,650	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 90	2	$1,350	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	safmr	2	$1,500	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 110	3	$1,991	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 90	3	$1,629	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	safmr	3	$1,810	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 110	4	$2,365	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	payment standard 90	4	$1,935	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 02863	safmr	4	$2,150	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.