787 GOUCHER STREET, JOHNSTOWN, PA 15905 · CCN 396132
Composite
79.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
41
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 79.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.9 vs natl
STAFFORD LISA
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
TACK BEARDSLEY SUSAN
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
LOPICCOLO BONNIE
6 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.59
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.77
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.52
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.62
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
34.8
3.59
0.77
0.97
1.84
3.52
0.0%
2025Q3
92
35.3
3.51
0.80
0.87
1.84
3.42
0.0%
2025Q2
91
34.7
3.50
0.78
0.82
1.90
3.35
0.0%
2025Q1
90
35.1
3.48
0.91
0.73
1.85
3.43
0.5%
2024Q4
92
35.8
3.50
0.97
0.70
1.83
3.35
0.0%
2024Q3
92
37.4
3.48
0.93
0.68
1.87
3.47
0.0%
2024Q2
91
38.8
3.45
0.98
0.64
1.83
3.32
0.4%
2024Q1
91
37.0
3.65
0.97
0.73
1.94
3.44
1.8%
2023Q4
92
36.5
3.69
1.00
0.68
2.02
3.60
2.9%
2023Q3
92
35.4
3.73
1.21
0.60
1.93
3.59
5.5%
2023Q2
91
36.8
3.29
1.12
0.41
1.76
3.16
6.9%
2023Q1
90
36.1
3.29
1.07
0.57
1.64
3.20
11.7%
2022Q4
92
37.8
3.19
0.99
0.46
1.75
3.12
12.3%
2022Q3
92
35.1
3.29
1.06
0.44
1.80
3.18
3.9%
2022Q2
91
38.4
3.21
0.96
0.51
1.74
3.04
1.2%
2022Q1
90
36.2
3.54
1.02
0.55
1.97
3.41
2.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
31
D × 22E × 9
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-12
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2026-04-15
2026-03-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-15
2026-03-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-04-15
2026-03-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-15
2025-02-20
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-07
2025-02-20
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-11-07
2025-02-20
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-02-01
2025-02-20
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-03-31
2025-02-20
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2025-03-31
2024-04-03
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-05-21
2024-04-03
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-05-21
2023-12-26
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
E
2024-02-13
2023-10-12
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-11-07
2023-10-12
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-11-07
2023-08-31
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WESTMONT WOODS LP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
99%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CARTER, CHRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENCOVA MUTUAL INSURANCE GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST NATIONAL INSURANCE AGENCY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
GRAY, PATRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLSINGER PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
KANIA, TONIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOPICCOLO, BONNIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
MARKIVICH, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARY SUSAN TACK-YUREK IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
RECKNER, EMILY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STAFFORD, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEVEN D TACK IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
SUGAR CREEK REST, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
SUSAN TACK BEARDSLEY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
TACK FAMILY VENTURES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
TACK-BEARDSLEY, SUSAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TACK-YUREK, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TACK, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WESTMONT WOODS, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BONNIE LOPICCOLO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE CARTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMILY RECKNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA STAFFORD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY TACK-YUREK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MARKIVICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK GRAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN TACK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN TACK-BEARDSLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONIA KANIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$567,077
—
$187,056
—
—
9
propco
2024-06-30
$488,875
—
$271,055
—
—
7
—
2023-06-30
$580,983
—
$327,963
—
—
7
—
2022-06-30
$479,231
—
$279,652
—
—
7
—
2021-06-30
$400,799
—
$253,809
—
—
7
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42021
acs median gross
0
$665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
fmr
0
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42021
acs median gross
1
$532
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
fmr
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42021
acs median gross
2
$777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
fmr
2
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42021
acs median gross
3
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
fmr
3
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42021
acs median gross
4
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
fmr
4
$1,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42021
acs median gross
5
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
acs median gross
$739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42021
acs recent mover gross
$724
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
0
$1,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
1
$595
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
2
$817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
3
$1,092
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
4
$1,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs median gross
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15905
acs recent mover gross
$838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 15905
payment standard 110
0
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 90
0
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
safmr
0
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 110
2
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 90
2
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
safmr
2
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15905
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.