Reads as: riskier than 14.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.93
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.20
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.56
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.08
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
33.2
4.93
1.20
0.84
2.89
4.56
8.1%
2025Q3
92
31.2
4.84
0.96
1.13
2.75
4.59
5.8%
2025Q2
91
31.0
4.83
0.94
1.12
2.78
4.70
4.9%
2025Q1
90
33.9
4.58
1.01
0.96
2.61
4.54
1.8%
2024Q4
92
28.2
5.33
1.00
1.31
3.02
5.27
5.5%
2024Q3
92
29.4
4.91
0.87
1.24
2.80
4.79
10.1%
2024Q2
91
30.0
4.77
1.12
0.94
2.71
4.71
15.3%
2024Q1
91
33.9
4.32
1.11
0.72
2.48
4.20
13.0%
2023Q4
92
29.6
5.10
1.36
0.74
3.01
4.94
14.6%
2023Q3
92
33.7
4.42
0.84
0.79
2.79
3.94
8.7%
2023Q2
91
32.7
4.65
1.02
0.82
2.80
4.25
10.0%
2023Q1
90
31.6
4.91
1.06
0.80
3.05
4.60
3.5%
2022Q4
92
31.3
4.70
0.86
1.01
2.83
4.44
9.8%
2022Q3
92
30.7
4.90
0.83
1.09
2.98
4.60
9.7%
2022Q2
91
27.6
5.50
0.92
1.26
3.32
5.14
5.4%
2022Q1
90
26.4
5.61
1.44
0.80
3.37
5.30
10.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
2
D × 2
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-09-13
2024-02-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CC SCOTTSDALE INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
PLAZA COMPANIES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRIES LEGACY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2007-10-19
current
pecos_ownership
HAROLD E GRIES 2007 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2007-10-19
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER LEGACY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2010-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2010-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER 2010 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2010-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
BARTOLA, MELANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-21
current
pecos_ownership
CC-DEVELOPMENT GROUP, INC.
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1996-07-23
current
pecos_ownership
CHANDLER, AMANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
COPE, TARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
EVRAETS, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-08-31
current
pecos_ownership
GILBERT, YANNICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
GRIES, HAROLD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-19
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER, SHARON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-19
current
pecos_ownership
KOSZYLKO, TOMEK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
MASLOW, CARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIERNIK, ARTUR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-03
current
pecos_ownership
MUSZYNSKI, THOMAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
POORMAN, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, GARY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, BRIDGET
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMANDA CHANDLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARTUR MIERNIK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIDGET WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARY MASLOW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY SMITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY SMITH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAROLD GRIES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN POORMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELANIE BARTOLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA EVRAETS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-08-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARON HARPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-10-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TARA COPE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS MUSZYNSKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOMEK KOSZYLKO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YANNICK GILBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
0
$2,471
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
1
$1,957
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
2
$2,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
3
$2,776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs median gross
$2,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85255
acs recent mover gross
$2,443
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85255
payment standard 110
0
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 90
0
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
safmr
0
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 110
1
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 90
1
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
safmr
1
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 110
2
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 90
2
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
safmr
2
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 110
3
$4,048
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 90
3
$3,312
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
safmr
3
$3,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 110
4
$4,488
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
payment standard 90
4
$3,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85255
safmr
4
$4,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.