405 NORTH PARK AVENUE, WELLSTON, OH 45692 · CCN 365939 · chain AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
Composite
44.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
50
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 44.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.95
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.22
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.02
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
40.9
2.95
0.22
0.88
1.85
2.79
5.7%
2025Q3
92
42.4
3.04
0.34
0.79
1.92
2.94
16.9%
2025Q2
91
43.2
3.08
0.40
0.70
1.99
2.88
26.2%
2025Q1
90
42.7
2.98
0.38
0.74
1.85
2.82
18.1%
2024Q4
92
40.7
2.98
0.26
0.89
1.83
2.85
9.2%
2024Q3
92
43.3
2.83
0.26
0.78
1.79
2.68
11.9%
2024Q2
91
43.0
2.73
0.27
0.78
1.68
2.60
7.4%
2024Q1
91
44.1
2.89
0.19
0.90
1.80
2.67
4.0%
2023Q4
92
40.0
2.63
0.24
0.81
1.58
2.56
8.5%
2023Q3
92
42.3
2.76
0.28
0.80
1.69
2.61
18.4%
2023Q2
91
40.7
2.85
0.31
0.81
1.72
2.67
14.2%
2023Q1
90
42.2
2.92
0.35
0.83
1.73
2.70
13.5%
2022Q4
92
43.3
2.59
0.28
0.84
1.47
2.36
15.1%
2022Q3
92
43.3
2.84
0.25
0.93
1.66
2.79
14.1%
2022Q2
91
41.5
3.00
0.20
1.07
1.73
2.91
26.9%
2022Q1
90
41.1
2.36
0.17
0.97
1.21
2.12
20.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-04
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-04
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-04
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-09-26
2024-07-31
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-31
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2024-08-19
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-05-10
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2024-05-10
2022-10-21
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-11-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GOLDSTEIN, JEFFREY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2024-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, ALEXANDER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2024-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
EDGEWOOD MANOR OF WELLSTON PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
16%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
EDGEWOOD MANOR OF WELLSTON PROPCO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
16%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SERENITY EQUITY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
WAGSCHAL, ZALMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
ZW AOM RE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
HOROWITZ, ZALEMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
WEINBERGER, DAVID
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDSTEIN, JEFFREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, ALEXANDER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, SAMUEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
WRAY, AMBER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY GOLDSTEIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2024-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL SHERMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2024-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER SHERMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2024-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDGEWOOD MANOR OF WELLSTON PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
16%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
EDGEWOOD MANOR OF WELLSTON PROPCO
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
16%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ZALMAN WAGSCHAL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZALEMAN HOROWITZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID WEINBERGER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER SHERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMBER WRAY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY GOLDSTEIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL SHERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$336,503
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2023-12-31
$334,186
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2022-12-31
$271,654
—
—
—
—
6
propco
2021-12-31
$296,658
—
—
—
—
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39079
fmr
0
$736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39079
acs median gross
1
$563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39079
fmr
1
$762
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39079
acs median gross
2
$765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39079
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39079
acs median gross
3
$917
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39079
fmr
3
$1,256
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39079
acs median gross
4
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39079
fmr
4
$1,344
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39079
acs median gross
$769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39079
acs recent mover gross
$797
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45692
acs median gross
1
$325
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45692
acs median gross
2
$733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45692
acs median gross
3
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45692
acs median gross
$714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45692
acs recent mover gross
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45692
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 110
4
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
payment standard 90
4
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45692
safmr
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.