1728 South Peninsula Road, East Jordan, MI 49727 · CCN 235062
Composite
27.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
113
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 27.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.88
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.54
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.73
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.94
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
97.3
3.88
0.54
0.48
2.86
3.73
25.8%
2025Q3
92
93.1
4.05
0.57
0.43
3.05
3.83
22.6%
2025Q2
91
94.9
3.84
0.62
0.43
2.79
3.52
19.9%
2025Q1
90
95.2
3.73
0.58
0.34
2.82
3.63
22.9%
2024Q4
92
98.3
3.53
0.68
0.23
2.62
3.36
12.9%
2024Q3
92
96.0
3.71
0.79
0.24
2.68
3.53
8.7%
2024Q2
91
92.3
3.72
0.67
0.37
2.67
3.45
7.5%
2024Q1
91
91.5
3.60
0.56
0.36
2.68
3.33
6.2%
2023Q4
92
88.6
3.58
0.57
0.42
2.59
3.41
9.3%
2023Q3
92
84.8
3.66
0.67
0.41
2.59
3.38
8.9%
2023Q2
91
83.4
2.98
0.46
0.40
2.12
2.77
4.3%
2023Q1
90
81.4
3.20
0.38
0.54
2.28
2.95
16.6%
2022Q4
92
76.5
2.71
0.42
0.32
1.96
2.53
0.0%
2022Q3
92
73.1
3.28
0.48
0.33
2.47
3.05
0.0%
2022Q2
91
75.9
3.67
0.60
0.37
2.69
3.44
0.0%
2022Q1
90
79.4
3.94
0.64
0.41
2.89
3.71
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2026-02-13
2025-12-17
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2026-01-27
2025-05-15
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2025-04-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-04-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-05-06
2025-03-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-05-06
2025-03-20
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2025-04-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2025-04-13
2025-03-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-04-13
2024-04-03
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-03-31
2023-04-28
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-06-01
2023-04-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-06-01
2023-04-28
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-01
2023-04-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-06-01
2023-04-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COUNTY OF CHARLEVOIX
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREWS, PAUL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREWS, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
CHAMBERLAIN, JOSHUA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
CHAMBERLAIN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FEIHEL, DENNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
JASON, MARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
JASON, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
THRUSH, TORY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
THRUSH, TORY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-11
current
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH TAYLOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA CHAMBERLAIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY JASON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL ANDREWS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN HOFFMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2013-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TORY THRUSH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-09-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS FEIHEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA CHAMBERLAIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL ANDREWS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TORY THRUSH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26029
fmr
0
$736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26029
acs median gross
1
$543
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26029
fmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26029
acs median gross
2
$971
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26029
fmr
2
$1,039
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26029
acs median gross
3
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26029
fmr
3
$1,445
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26029
acs median gross
4
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26029
fmr
4
$1,622
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26029
acs median gross
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26029
acs recent mover gross
$1,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49727
acs median gross
1
$479
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49727
acs median gross
2
$1,009
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49727
acs median gross
3
$1,413
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49727
acs median gross
$925
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49727
acs recent mover gross
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49727
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 110
3
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 90
3
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
safmr
3
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49727
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.