Composite
13.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 61.0 | 52.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.08 | in index |
| staffing risk | 69.9 | 69.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.44 | in index |
| chow risk | 23.9 | 27.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.76 | in index |
| financial risk | 7.0 | 16.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 1.62 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 30.6 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 16.1 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 52.4 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 69.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 69.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.3 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 22.1 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 52.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 52.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 69.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 69.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.57 | -1.59 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.66 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.56 | +0.35 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.56 | -0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.92 | -0.74 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.57 | -0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.98 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.94 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.00 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 54.5 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 1.83 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 53.0 | 3.00 | 0.18 | 0.92 | 1.89 | 2.95 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 55.4 | 2.83 | 0.24 | 0.90 | 1.69 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 56.8 | 2.69 | 0.23 | 0.82 | 1.64 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 55.3 | 2.45 | 0.32 | 0.76 | 1.38 | 2.45 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 57.4 | 2.38 | 0.38 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 2.26 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 53.3 | 2.79 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 1.63 | 2.63 | 2.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 54.7 | 2.75 | 0.36 | 0.66 | 1.73 | 2.66 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 55.4 | 2.84 | 0.36 | 0.77 | 1.72 | 2.81 | 1.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 57.5 | 2.70 | 0.28 | 0.77 | 1.65 | 2.62 | 11.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 53.1 | 2.63 | 0.35 | 0.84 | 1.44 | 2.47 | 24.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 47.0 | 2.84 | 0.45 | 0.69 | 1.70 | 2.83 | 19.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 45.0 | 3.14 | 0.34 | 1.01 | 1.79 | 3.09 | 21.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 44.3 | 3.15 | 0.55 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 3.05 | 23.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.5 | 2.88 | 0.25 | 0.91 | 1.72 | 2.88 | 9.1% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | Fine | $17,655 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-04-25 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-05-10 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-05-10 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-05-10 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-05-10 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-05-10 |
| 2024-04-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-05-10 |
| 2023-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-11-14 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0685 | Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2021-12-07 |
| 2021-11-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2021-12-07 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | E | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | F | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | F | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | G | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2019-06-14 |
| 2019-05-24 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2019-06-14 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CICCONE, NICHOLAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HANDLER, AARON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| REPCHICK, GEORGE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SNOOK, MOLLIE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 2020 GSR DYNASTY LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AH DYNASTY LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AARON HANDLER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GEORGE REPCHICK | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MOLLIE SNOOK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS CICCONE | OTHER | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-01 | — | EMBASSY WILLARD LLC | WILLARD HEALTHCARE LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39077 | acs median gross | 0 | $571 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39077 | fmr | 0 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39077 | acs median gross | 1 | $674 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39077 | fmr | 1 | $742 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39077 | acs median gross | 2 | $843 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39077 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39077 | acs median gross | 3 | $994 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39077 | fmr | 3 | $1,212 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39077 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,150 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39077 | fmr | 4 | $1,521 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39077 | acs median gross | $848 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39077 | acs recent mover gross | $985 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44890 | acs median gross | 1 | $569 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44890 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,044 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44890 | acs median gross | 3 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44890 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,144 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44890 | acs median gross | $893 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44890 | acs recent mover gross | $1,347 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | safmr | 0 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | safmr | 1 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,331 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | safmr | 3 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44890 | safmr | 4 | $1,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |