Reads as: riskier than 12.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ELLENBOGEN MOSS
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.36
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.09
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.44
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.8
3.36
0.09
0.81
2.46
3.17
1.1%
2025Q3
92
115.9
3.21
0.15
0.78
2.28
3.03
1.1%
2025Q2
91
114.5
3.26
0.25
0.62
2.38
3.08
0.8%
2025Q1
90
115.9
3.20
0.34
0.53
2.33
2.99
0.0%
2024Q4
92
112.7
3.16
0.32
0.63
2.21
3.15
0.0%
2024Q3
92
112.2
3.21
0.29
0.72
2.20
3.18
0.0%
2024Q2
91
110.5
3.29
0.31
0.66
2.33
3.16
0.0%
2024Q1
91
115.8
3.23
0.28
0.84
2.12
2.97
0.0%
2023Q4
92
114.5
3.19
0.33
0.72
2.13
3.09
0.0%
2023Q3
92
114.8
3.21
0.33
0.76
2.12
3.09
0.0%
2023Q2
91
113.2
3.37
0.37
0.73
2.27
3.26
0.0%
2023Q1
90
116.4
3.36
0.43
0.60
2.33
3.21
0.0%
2022Q4
92
112.9
3.45
0.34
0.69
2.42
3.43
0.3%
2022Q3
92
109.8
3.42
0.40
0.63
2.38
3.10
6.8%
2022Q2
91
105.1
3.46
0.44
0.59
2.42
3.29
7.2%
2022Q1
90
107.3
3.61
0.36
0.65
2.61
3.50
5.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
D × 17E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-09-14
2025-08-14
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-09-14
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-09-14
2025-08-14
Health
F0778
Help the resident make transportation arrangements to and from radiology services.
D
2025-09-14
2025-08-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-14
2024-08-19
Health · complaint
F0569
Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.
D
2024-09-05
2024-03-21
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-21
2024-03-21
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-04-21
2022-05-19
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
E
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2022-06-20
2022-05-19
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-06-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
8
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COURTYARDS NURSING HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRUZ-PIZARRO, NAIHOMI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLENBOGEN, MOSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO II LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST I
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS ELLENBOGEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAIHOMI CRUZ-PIZARRO
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-07-31
$17,653
—
$17,653
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$16,116
—
$16,116
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$12,050
—
$12,050
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$12,786
—
$12,786
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12095
acs median gross
0
$1,575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
1
$1,549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
1
$1,731
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
2
$1,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
2
$1,972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
3
$2,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
3
$2,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
4
$2,341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
4
$2,924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
5
$2,841
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
acs median gross
$1,775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
acs recent mover gross
$1,956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
0
$1,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
1
$1,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
2
$1,437
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
3
$1,737
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
4
$1,961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs median gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32808
acs recent mover gross
$1,756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32808
payment standard 110
0
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 90
0
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
safmr
0
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 110
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 90
1
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
safmr
1
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 110
2
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 90
2
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
safmr
2
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 110
3
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 90
3
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
safmr
3
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 110
4
$2,838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
payment standard 90
4
$2,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32808
safmr
4
$2,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.