Reads as: riskier than 65.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
DAVISON JOHN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
ABINGTON FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.28
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.05
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.14
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
63.4
3.28
0.05
0.89
2.34
3.14
8.4%
2025Q3
92
58.1
3.57
0.06
0.99
2.52
3.35
2.5%
2025Q2
91
60.5
3.46
0.05
0.94
2.47
3.34
6.6%
2025Q1
90
58.9
3.29
0.04
0.97
2.29
3.13
0.6%
2024Q4
92
57.3
3.60
0.04
1.04
2.52
3.36
3.0%
2024Q3
92
59.9
3.22
0.05
0.96
2.22
3.13
8.2%
2024Q2
91
60.9
3.37
0.06
0.94
2.37
3.21
1.8%
2024Q1
91
64.2
3.07
0.05
0.90
2.12
2.84
2.3%
2023Q4
92
61.7
3.18
0.05
0.90
2.23
2.97
2.1%
2023Q3
92
61.5
3.30
0.04
0.95
2.31
3.44
6.7%
2023Q2
91
62.2
3.15
0.06
0.93
2.16
3.09
6.0%
2023Q1
90
62.5
3.18
0.04
0.89
2.25
2.91
11.0%
2022Q4
92
57.8
3.03
0.04
1.03
1.96
2.77
11.1%
2022Q3
92
50.7
3.39
0.07
1.09
2.23
3.19
11.6%
2022Q2
91
52.5
3.18
0.07
1.08
2.04
2.87
10.8%
2022Q1
90
57.0
2.95
0.07
0.95
1.93
2.72
3.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2026-03-06
2026-02-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2026-03-06
2026-02-11
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2026-03-06
2025-01-29
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2025-02-19
2025-01-29
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
F
2025-02-19
2024-01-24
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-03-09
2024-01-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-03-09
2024-01-24
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-09
2024-01-24
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-03-09
2024-01-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-03-09
2023-10-23
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-07
2023-10-23
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-12-07
2023-08-15
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-09-29
2023-08-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MANAGEMENT GROUP THREE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, THOMAS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2003-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, JOHN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2003-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, JOEL G
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2003-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2003-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
ABINGTON FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ABINGTON, LEONARD
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
B & J LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CALVIN H JONES ESTATE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-08-11
current
pecos_ownership
REVOCABLE TRUST OF ROY BUSH BRIDGES AND JUDY KAYE WINN BRIDGES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE VERNICE C WRIGHT IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2018-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SANDERS, JACK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANDERS, JACK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS DAVIS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2003-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN DAVIS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2003-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL G DAVIS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2003-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL DAVIS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2003-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEONARD ABINGTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK SANDERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$366,185
—
—
$173,341
$145,565
7
—
2023-12-31
$425,186
—
—
$263,729
$116,328
3
—
2022-12-31
$402,849
—
—
$270,398
$11,856
3
—
2021-12-31
$368,318
—
—
$255,290
$12,676
3
—
2020-12-31
$393,538
—
—
$302,008
$16,088
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22019
acs median gross
0
$953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
fmr
0
$921
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22019
acs median gross
1
$857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
fmr
1
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22019
acs median gross
2
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
fmr
2
$1,217
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22019
acs median gross
3
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
fmr
3
$1,459
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22019
acs median gross
4
$1,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
fmr
4
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22019
acs median gross
5
$649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
acs median gross
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22019
acs recent mover gross
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70633
acs median gross
1
$472
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70633
acs median gross
2
$712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70633
acs median gross
3
$851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70633
acs median gross
$774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70633
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 110
3
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 90
3
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
safmr
3
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 110
4
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
payment standard 90
4
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70633
safmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.