Reads as: riskier than 28.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.05
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.19
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.4
3.15
0.28
0.94
1.94
3.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.7
3.19
0.30
0.93
1.96
3.07
0.0%
2025Q2
91
88.4
3.28
0.34
0.89
2.06
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
83.0
3.28
0.36
0.97
1.95
3.14
0.0%
2024Q4
92
89.0
2.69
0.33
0.77
1.59
2.58
0.0%
2024Q3
92
91.6
3.07
0.34
0.83
1.90
2.91
0.0%
2024Q2
91
88.7
2.96
0.30
0.78
1.89
2.86
0.0%
2024Q1
91
88.9
2.93
0.38
0.85
1.70
2.83
0.0%
2023Q4
92
91.4
2.87
0.40
0.84
1.63
2.74
1.3%
2023Q3
92
94.1
2.92
0.50
0.78
1.64
2.80
0.8%
2023Q2
91
93.0
2.78
0.31
0.80
1.66
2.60
3.9%
2023Q1
90
93.1
2.57
0.30
0.78
1.49
2.47
0.9%
2022Q4
92
98.5
2.63
0.32
0.76
1.55
2.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
97.7
3.00
0.36
0.79
1.85
2.79
0.0%
2022Q2
91
94.7
2.90
0.34
0.81
1.76
2.74
0.0%
2022Q1
90
93.5
2.53
0.25
0.67
1.61
2.70
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
B × 3D × 10E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-12-05
2025-12-04
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2025-12-05
2025-09-18
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-10-13
2024-11-15
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2024-12-31
2024-11-15
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
B
2024-12-31
2024-11-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-31
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-04-17
2024-02-07
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-03-06
2023-12-21
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
B
2024-01-30
2023-12-21
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2024-01-30
2023-12-21
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-01-30
2023-12-21
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-01-30
2023-12-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-01-30
2023-12-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-01-30
2023-08-08
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-10-07
2023-08-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-10-07
2023-08-08
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2023-10-07
2023-06-02
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-07-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY PA TENTANT HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEORGE, GREGORY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANDLER, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANDLER, AARON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOODY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
REPCHICK, GEORGE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
REPCHICK, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-20
current
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE REPCHICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
2020 GSR DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AH DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE S. REPCHICK 2020 FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE REPCHICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY MOODY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$409,002
—
$409,002
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$540,086
—
$540,086
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$400,676
—
$400,676
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$376,978
—
$376,978
—
—
1
—
2020-04-30
$24,816
—
—
—
$1,125
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42085
acs median gross
0
$610
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
fmr
0
$704
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42085
acs median gross
1
$632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
fmr
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42085
acs median gross
2
$847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
fmr
2
$996
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42085
acs median gross
3
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
fmr
3
$1,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42085
acs median gross
4
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
fmr
4
$1,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42085
acs median gross
5
$1,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
acs median gross
$843
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42085
acs recent mover gross
$967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs median gross
2
$909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs median gross
3
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs median gross
4
$1,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs median gross
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16148
acs recent mover gross
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 16148
payment standard 110
0
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 90
0
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
safmr
0
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 110
1
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 90
1
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
safmr
1
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 110
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 90
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
safmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 110
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 90
3
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
safmr
3
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16148
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.