Reads as: riskier than 89.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
WILLIG ZACHARY
81 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.21
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.05
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.19
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.21
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
43.7
2.21
0.05
0.84
1.32
2.19
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.4
2.61
0.23
0.84
1.54
2.46
0.0%
2025Q2
91
41.1
2.75
0.12
0.92
1.71
2.56
0.0%
2025Q1
90
41.9
2.91
0.11
0.86
1.94
2.80
0.0%
2024Q4
92
46.0
2.59
0.05
0.89
1.65
2.40
0.0%
2024Q3
92
46.1
2.61
0.04
0.89
1.68
2.38
0.0%
2024Q2
91
44.7
3.09
0.04
1.06
1.99
2.77
6.4%
2024Q1
91
48.3
3.00
0.13
0.93
1.94
2.73
2.0%
2023Q4
92
54.0
2.90
0.13
0.86
1.91
2.69
1.0%
2023Q3
92
52.9
2.94
0.15
0.91
1.88
2.76
3.1%
2023Q2
91
52.5
3.06
0.07
0.99
2.00
2.85
17.8%
2023Q1
90
50.5
3.27
0.03
1.13
2.11
3.15
39.5%
2022Q4
92
49.9
3.30
0.03
1.08
2.20
3.15
37.8%
2022Q3
92
50.0
3.53
0.04
1.27
2.22
3.27
42.6%
2022Q2
91
49.0
2.93
0.00
1.11
1.82
2.95
17.6%
2022Q1
90
49.4
3.47
0.08
1.22
2.16
3.48
24.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
H
2026-03-31
2026-03-30
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-03-31
2026-03-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-31
2026-03-30
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-03-31
2025-08-14
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2025-09-05
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-11
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-09-06
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-09-06
2023-04-14
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-05-19
2023-04-14
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-05-19
2023-04-14
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2023-05-19
2023-04-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-05-19
2023-04-14
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2023-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BLAKE, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLAKE, MALISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUCHICELA, JORGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
HUGGINS, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLEY, KRISTI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAY, GEORGE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEIMAR I ENTERPRISES, L.L.C.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
WEIMAR I ENTERPRISES, L.L.C.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEIMAR I ENTERPRISES, LLC
—
—
2026-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WILLIG, ZACHARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA HUGGINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACHARY WILLIG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY STRAMECKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY BLAKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE WAY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFERY ROLLO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JORGE DUCHICELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTI KELLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MALISA BLAKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48089
acs median gross
0
$231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48089
fmr
0
$892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48089
acs median gross
1
$273
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48089
fmr
1
$917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48089
acs median gross
2
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48089
fmr
2
$1,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48089
acs median gross
3
$1,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48089
fmr
3
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48089
fmr
4
$1,688
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48089
acs median gross
$926
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48089
acs recent mover gross
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78962
acs median gross
1
$244
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78962
acs median gross
2
$786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78962
acs median gross
3
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78962
acs median gross
$508
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78962
payment standard 110
0
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 90
0
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
safmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 110
3
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 90
3
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
safmr
3
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78962
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.