Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

101–150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
101	Iron County Medical Care Facility	11.8%	99.4	A	MI	Crystal Falls	200	—
102	DR GUY GORMAN SR CARE HOME	11.8%	99.3	B	AZ	CHINLE	80	—
103	WESTMINSTER BALDWIN PARK	11.7%	99.3	B	FL	ORLANDO	40	—
104	Hillcrest Nursing Home	11.6%	99.3	B	NE	McCook	100	—
105	Miners Colfax Medical Center	11.5%	99.3	A	NM	Raton	37	—
106	CLAREWOOD HOUSE EXTENDED CARE CENTER	11.5%	99.3	A	TX	HOUSTON	60	—
107	CHERITH CARE CENTER AT WILLOW BROOK	11.5%	99.3	B	OH	DELAWARE	34	—
108	Sarah Ann Hester Memorial Home	11.4%	99.3	A	NE	Benkelman	56	—
109	KEARNY COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	11.3%	99.3	B	KS	LAKIN	40	—
110	Holy Family Manor	11.3%	99.3	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	208	—
111	ANDBE HOME, INC	11.2%	99.3	A	KS	NORTON	50	—
112	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT SPRENKLE DRIVE	11.2%	99.3	C	PA	YORK	104	—
113	WILLOW BROOKE CT SKILLED CARE CTR AT HERON POINT	11.2%	99.3	A	MD	CHESTERTOWN	38	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
114	Hubbard Care Center	11.1%	99.3	B	IA	Hubbard	60	—
115	PROVIDENCE PLACE AT GLENCROFT	11.1%	99.3	A	AZ	GLENDALE	225	—
116	Little Sisters Of The Poor	11.1%	99.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	73	—
117	CLARENCE CARE CENTER	11.0%	99.2	B	MO	CLARENCE	60	—
118	AMERICAN LUTHERAN HOME-MONDOVI	11.0%	99.2	A	WI	MONDOVI	35	—
119	Live Oak	10.9%	99.2	B	LA	Shreveport	160	—
120	Halstad Living Center	10.9%	99.2	A	MN	HALSTAD	44	—
121	Newaygo Co Medical Care Facility	10.9%	99.2	B	MI	Fremont	116	—
122	ST VINCENT DEPAUL RESIDENCE	10.9%	99.2	B	NY	BRONX	200	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
123	POCOPSON HOME	10.8%	99.2	B	PA	WEST CHESTER	275	—
124	MISSION CONVALESCENT HOME	10.8%	99.2	B	TN	JACKSON	57	—
125	Edgewood Place at the Village at Brookwood	10.8%	99.2	A	NC	Burlington	51	—
126	BUTTERFIELD TRAIL VILLAGE	10.8%	99.2	A	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	87	—
127	John Edward Harter Nursing Center	10.8%	99.2	A	SC	Fairfax	44	—
128	HENDERSON COUNTY RET CENTER	10.8%	99.2	A	IL	STRONGHURST	58	—
129	Boundary Waters Care Center	10.8%	99.2	A	MN	ELY	42	—
130	MARINUKA MANOR	10.7%	99.2	A	WI	GALESVILLE	50	—
131	Wilber Care Center	10.7%	99.2	B	NE	Wilber	58	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
132	CHAPMAN VALLEY MANOR	10.6%	99.2	A	KS	CHAPMAN	35	—
133	FAYETTE COUNTY HOSPITAL	10.6%	99.1	A	IL	VANDALIA	63	—
134	Simpson Memorial Home	10.5%	99.1	A	IA	West Liberty	55	—
135	Westhaven Community	10.4%	99.1	B	IA	Boone	100	—
136	The Transitional Care Center of Owensboro	10.4%	99.1	A	KY	Owensboro	30	—
137	PLAINVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	10.4%	99.1	C	TX	PLAINVIEW	0	—
138	STODDARD BAPTIST NURSING HOME	10.3%	99.1	D	DC	WASHINGTON	164	—
139	Elwood Care Center	10.3%	99.1	A	NE	Elwood	43	—
140	ST JOHN LUTHERAN HOME	9.9%	99.1	C	MN	SPRINGFIELD	65	—
141	LIVING CENTER, THE	9.9%	99.1	C	MO	MARSHALL	99	—
142	MENNONITE FRIENDSHIP COMMUNITIES INC	9.9%	99.1	C	KS	SOUTH HUTCHINSON	100	—
143	CLEARVIEW BRAIN INJURY CENTER	9.9%	99.1	A	WI	JUNEAU	30	—
144	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKD CARE CENTER AT LIMA ESTATES	9.9%	99.1	A	PA	LIMA	60	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
145	NEW HAVEN CARE CENTER	9.8%	99.1	B	MO	NEW HAVEN	90	—
146	JENKIN'S LIVING CENTER	9.8%	99.1	B	SD	WATERTOWN	110	—
147	Thornton Manor Nursing and Care Center	9.8%	99.1	A	IA	Lansing	40	—
148	MORAVIAN VILLAGE OF BETHLEHEM	9.7%	99.0	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	93	—
149	GLADES HEALTH CARE CENTER	9.6%	99.0	A	FL	PAHOKEE	120	—
150	Minnewaska Community Health Services	9.6%	99.0	A	MN	STARBUCK	39	—

Showing 101–150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.