Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

10,401–10,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10401	ARCADIA CARE BLOOMINGTON	0.0%	27.7	F	IL	BLOOMINGTON	115	—
10402	BROWNWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.0%	27.7	C	TX	BROWNWOOD	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10403	Palo Alto Post-Acute	0.0%	27.7	B	CA	PALO ALTO	66	COVENANT CARE LLC
10404	SPRINGS OF LIMA THE	0.0%	27.7	B	OH	LIMA	56	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
10405	Harmony Utica Ridge	0.0%	27.7	D	IA	Davenport	115	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
10406	ALARIS HEALTH AT CEDAR GROVE	0.0%	27.7	C	NJ	CEDAR GROVE	230	CG HEALTHCARE LLC
10407	DOVE HEALTHCARE - RICE LAKE	0.0%	27.7	A	WI	RICE LAKE	50	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
10408	PARK MANOR OF SOUTH BELT	0.0%	27.7	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10409	CROWLEY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.0%	27.7	B	TX	CROWLEY	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10410	Bennettsville Health And Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	27.7	B	SC	Bennettsville	110	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
10411	Sage View Care Center	0.0%	27.7	C	WY	Rock Springs	82	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
10412	The Lodge at Taylor	0.0%	27.7	C	MI	Taylor	134	B&Y TRUST
10413	SOUTH PASADENA CARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	CA	SOUTH PASADENA	156	—
10414	THE OAKS OF HOUMA	0.0%	27.7	A	LA	HOUMA	120	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
10415	Parkview Manor	0.0%	27.7	D	IA	Wellman	62	GST SNF LLC
10416	FOUNTAIN CIRCLE CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	KY	WINCHESTER	147	WHEATEN LLC
10417	The Grandview Nursing and Rehabilitation Facility	0.0%	27.7	B	KY	Campbellsville	81	VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
10418	Landmark of Lincoln Park Rehabilitation and Nursin	0.0%	27.7	F	IL	CHICAGO	178	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
10419	Southview Acres HealthCare Center	0.0%	27.7	D	MN	WEST SAINT PAUL	210	—
10420	ARBOR TRAIL REHAB AND SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	FL	INVERNESS	116	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
10421	Monument Healthcare Cottonwood Creek	0.0%	27.7	B	UT	Salt Lake City	77	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
10422	SOMERSET RIDGE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	C	MA	SOMERSET	135	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
10423	Hazard Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	27.7	B	KY	Hazard	200	SEKY HOLDING CO
10424	Stevens Point Health Services	0.0%	27.7	C	WI	Stevens Point	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
10425	CORNELL HEALTH SERVICES	0.0%	27.7	A	WI	CORNELL	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
10426	Highfield Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.0%	27.7	C	NC	Cary	120	SNF MGR LLC
10427	TRINITY HOMES	0.0%	27.7	B	ND	MINOT	141	TRINITY HEALTH
10428	THE LAURELS OF WILLOW CREEK	0.0%	27.7	A	VA	MIDLOTHIAN	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
10429	HILLCREST NURSING CENTER	0.0%	27.7	A	MS	MAGEE	100	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
10430	The Heritage Nursing and Rehabilitation Facility	0.0%	27.7	B	KY	Corbin	85	VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
10431	HARBOR VILLAGE NORTH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CEN	0.0%	27.7	A	CT	NEW LONDON	128	WACHUSETT VENTURES LLC
10432	WILLOWCREST HEALTH SERVICES	0.0%	27.7	C	WI	SOUTH MILWAUKEE	100	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
10433	Cypress Pointe Rehabilitation Center	0.0%	27.7	A	NC	Wilmington	90	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
10434	Signature Healthcare of Hart County Rehab & Wellne	0.0%	27.7	B	KY	Horse Cave	104	WHEATEN LLC
10435	SUGAR CREEK CARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	D	PA	FRANKLIN	148	—
10436	BRIDGEWATER HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.0%	27.7	B	IN	CARMEL	120	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
10437	Mesa Hills Post Acute	0.0%	27.7	D	TX	Brownsville	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
10438	COTTAGE OF THE SHOALS	0.0%	27.7	A	AL	TUSCUMBIA	103	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
10439	NHC HEALTHCARE, PULASKI	0.0%	27.7	B	TN	PULASKI	102	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
10440	BEL AIR AT TERAVISTA	0.0%	27.7	C	TX	ROUND ROCK	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10441	HAVEN OF SAGUARO VALLEY	0.0%	27.7	C	AZ	TUCSON	112	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
10442	BRIA OF GODFREY	0.0%	27.7	F	IL	GODFREY	68	SEVEN SPECIES LLC
10443	PRUITTHEALTH - OLD CAPITOL	0.0%	27.7	C	GA	LOUISVILLE	143	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
10444	Trinity Care Center	0.0%	27.7	C	TX	Round Rock	179	CARA CAPITAL LLC
10445	GARDENS AT CELINA	0.0%	27.7	B	OH	CELINA	25	LIONSTONE HZ OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
10446	Newburgh Health and Rehab	0.0%	27.7	C	IN	NEWBURGH	114	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
10447	WINDCREST NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.0%	27.7	F	TX	WINDCREST	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10448	BOOKER T.WASHINGTON SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITA	0.0%	27.7	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	80	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
10449	LIFE CARE CENTER OF RED BANK	0.0%	27.7	D	TN	CHATTANOOGA	148	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
10450	PruittHealth - Carrollton	0.0%	27.7	A	GA	CARROLLTON	42	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC

Showing 10,401–10,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.