Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

201–250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
201	PRAIRIE VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CTR	12.4%	98.8	C	IL	JACKSONVILLE	126	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
202	APERION CARE VINCENNES	12.4%	98.8	F	IN	VINCENNES	170	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
203	WATERS OF RUSHVILLE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	12.4%	98.8	D	IN	RUSHVILLE	98	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
204	WESTCHESTER HOUSE, THE	12.4%	98.8	D	MO	CHESTERFIELD	159	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
205	NORTHSTAR POST ACUTE	12.4%	98.8	F	NV	CARSON CITY	73	COVENANT CARE LLC
206	LIFE CARE CENTER OF EVERGREEN	12.3%	98.8	C	CO	EVERGREEN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
207	MILFORD CENTER	12.3%	98.8	F	DE	MILFORD	136	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
208	Deer Creek Nursing and Rehabilitation	12.3%	98.8	D	TX	Wimberley	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
209	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	12.3%	98.8	C	IN	MARION	176	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
210	WATERS OF MIDDLETOWN SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	12.3%	98.8	B	IN	MIDDLETOWN	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
211	LIFE CARE CENTER OF STONEGATE	12.3%	98.8	C	CO	PARKER	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
212	BLOOMINGTON REHABILITATION & HCC	12.3%	98.8	C	IL	BLOOMINGTON	78	—
213	Life Care Center of Coeur d'Alene	12.3%	98.7	B	ID	Coeur d'Alene	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
214	WOODMONT CENTER	12.3%	98.7	C	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	118	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
215	SIGNATURE HEALTH OF PORTLAND REHAB & WELLNESS CENT	12.3%	98.7	F	TN	PORTLAND	112	WHEATEN LLC
216	JEFFERSON HEALTH CARE	12.2%	98.7	D	MO	LEES SUMMIT	118	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
217	AVIATA AT OLDSMAR	12.2%	98.7	D	FL	OLDSMAR	120	—
218	Town East Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	12.2%	98.7	D	TX	Mesquite	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
219	Avir at Cisco	12.2%	98.7	B	TX	CISCO	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
220	CAMDEN HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	12.1%	98.7	D	TN	CAMDEN	120	B&Y TRUST
221	Bethany Woods Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	12.1%	98.7	C	NC	Albemarle	180	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
222	Life Care Center of Banner Elk	12.1%	98.7	B	NC	Banner Elk	118	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
223	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MORGAN COUNTY	12.1%	98.7	C	TN	WARTBURG	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
224	FORTUNA REHABILITATION AND WELLNESS CENTER, LP	12.0%	98.7	D	CA	FORTUNA	104	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
225	GRAND RIVER HEALTH CARE	12.0%	98.7	F	MO	CHILLICOTHE	60	—
226	Avir at Weatherford	12.0%	98.7	C	TX	WEATHERFORD	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
227	Grace Skilled Nursing and Therapy Jenks	11.9%	98.7	D	OK	Jenks	187	BRIDGES ESOP INC
228	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WAYNESVILLE	11.9%	98.7	D	MO	WAYNESVILLE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
229	BRIDGEVILLE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	11.8%	98.6	D	PA	BRIDGEVILLE	194	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
230	Avir at Arbor Terrace	11.8%	98.6	C	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
231	ALPINE FIRESIDE HEALTH CENTER	11.8%	98.6	C	IL	ROCKFORD	66	OXMATI MANAGEMENT LLC
232	HILLTOP VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	11.8%	98.6	D	TX	KERRVILLE	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
233	ST SOPHIA HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	11.8%	98.6	D	MO	FLORISSANT	240	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
234	CEDAR RIDGE CENTER	11.8%	98.6	B	WV	SISSONVILLE	119	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
235	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PUEBLO	11.8%	98.6	D	CO	PUEBLO	187	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
236	Rocky Mountain Care - Cottage on Vine	11.8%	98.6	D	UT	Murray	61	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
237	Careage Hills Rehabilitation and Healthcare	11.8%	98.6	B	IA	Cherokee	44	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
238	HALE KUPUNA HERITAGE HOME, LLC	11.8%	98.6	C	HI	KOLOA	84	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
239	MORAN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	11.7%	98.6	D	MD	WESTERNPORT	130	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
240	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF ENERGY	11.7%	98.6	F	IL	ENERGY	98	BRIDGEMARK HEALTHCARE LLC
241	Life Care Center of Lewiston	11.7%	98.6	B	ID	Lewiston	121	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
242	Greenwood Operations DBA Greenwood Center	11.7%	98.6	D	RI	Warwick	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
243	HOUSTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	11.7%	98.6	B	TX	CROCKETT	0	—
244	Weiser Care of Cascadia	11.7%	98.6	D	ID	Weiser	76	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
245	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CENTERVILLE	11.6%	98.6	B	TN	CENTERVILLE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
246	ACCEL AT WILLOW BEND	11.6%	98.6	D	TX	PLANO	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
247	WATERS OF FORT WAYNE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	11.6%	98.5	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	77	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
248	River Trace Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	11.6%	98.5	B	NC	Washington	140	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
249	FAIRFIELD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	11.6%	98.5	C	MD	CROWNSVILLE	96	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
250	Ralls Nursing Home	11.6%	98.5	F	TX	Ralls	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 201–250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.