Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,501–2,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2501	VILLAGE CARE CENTER INC	0.8%	83.6	C	MO	MARYVILLE	46	—
2502	Sumner Place	0.8%	83.6	A	NE	Lincoln	104	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2503	SUITES AT CLERMONT PARK CARE CENTER, THE	0.8%	83.6	A	CO	DENVER	63	CHRISTIAN LIVING NEIGHBORHOODS
2504	NORTH AURORA LIVING & REHAB CTR	0.8%	83.6	F	IL	NORTH AURORA	129	—
2505	LEBANON VALLEY HOME THE	0.8%	83.6	A	PA	ANNVILLE	55	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
2506	AUGUSTANA CARE HASTINGS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	83.6	B	MN	HASTINGS	72	—
2507	Groesbeck LTC Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.8%	83.6	B	TX	GROESBECK	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2508	HOLIDAY HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE	0.8%	83.6	A	OK	NORMAN	51	BRIDGES ESOP INC
2509	River Landing at Sandy Ridge	0.8%	83.6	A	NC	Colfax	60	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES INC
2510	Luther Home	0.8%	83.6	A	WI	Marinette	80	—
2511	METHODIST SEPCIALTY CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.6	A	MS	FLOWOOD	60	—
2512	Weston County Health Services	0.8%	83.6	B	WY	Newcastle	58	WESTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2513	HOMEWOOD LIVING WILLIAMSPORT	0.8%	83.6	C	MD	WILLIAMSPORT	82	—
2514	Good Samaritan Society - Osceola	0.8%	83.6	B	NE	Osceola	47	SANFORD
2515	CARE INN OF LA GRANGE	0.8%	83.6	C	TX	LA GRANGE	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
2516	Ephrata Manor	0.8%	83.6	A	PA	EPHRATA	120	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
2517	SETTLERS RIDGE CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.6	C	TX	CELINA	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2518	RICHMOND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.6	B	TX	RICHMOND	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2519	LAKEVIEW HEALTH CENTER	0.8%	83.6	A	WI	WEST SALEM	50	COUNTY OF LA CROSSE
2520	PALO DURO NURSING HOME	0.8%	83.6	B	TX	CLAUDE	0	—
2521	BAPTIST HOMES OF ADRIAN	0.8%	83.6	A	MO	ADRIAN	38	THE BAPTIST HOME
2522	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING PENNYPACK PARK	0.8%	83.6	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
2523	ROCKY TOP CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.6	C	TN	ROCKY TOP	117	—
2524	TOPEKA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.8%	83.6	B	KS	TOPEKA	68	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
2525	Woodcliff Lake Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	83.6	A	NJ	WOODCLIFF LAKE	114	—
2526	Western Horizons Care Center	0.8%	83.6	B	ND	HETTINGER	40	—
2527	OVERBROOK CENTER	0.8%	83.5	B	OH	MIDDLEPORT	99	—
2528	St Joseph's Hillside Villa	0.8%	83.5	A	NE	West Point	54	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHRISTIAN CHARITY SPONSORED MINISTRIES INC
2529	FAIRWAY VIEW NEIGHBORHOODS	0.8%	83.5	A	MN	ORTONVILLE	51	CITY OF ORTONVILLE
2530	JEFFREY & SUSAN BRUDNICK CENTER FOR LIVING	0.8%	83.5	A	MA	PEABODY	180	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
2531	Morganfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	83.5	A	KY	Morganfield	60	—
2532	Mountains Community Hosp DP/SNF	0.8%	83.5	A	CA	Lake Arrowhead	19	—
2533	CRESTVIEW NURSING & RESIDENTIAL LIVING	0.8%	83.5	A	KS	SENECA	34	—
2534	Georgetown Nursing and Transitional Care	0.8%	83.5	C	TX	GEORGETOWN	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2535	BARNSDALL NURSING HOME	0.8%	83.5	A	OK	BARNSDALL	40	—
2536	PARK MANOR OF MCKINNEY	0.8%	83.5	C	TX	MCKINNEY	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2537	MEMORIAL CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.5	A	IL	BELLEVILLE	82	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
2538	SPJST Rest Home No 2	0.8%	83.5	C	TX	Needville	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
2539	PURCELL CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.5	B	OK	PURCELL	105	IHS MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS INC
2540	MICHAELSEN HEALTH CENTER	0.8%	83.5	B	IL	BATAVIA	99	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
2541	Jamestown Nursing And Rehab, LLC	0.8%	83.5	D	AR	Rogers	140	—
2542	Helen Porter Healthcare & Rehab	0.8%	83.5	B	VT	Middlebury	98	—
2543	ANDALUSIA MANOR	0.8%	83.5	A	AL	ANDALUSIA	154	SASSER ENTERPRISES INC
2544	LAKEVIEW NURSING & REHAB	0.8%	83.3	A	OK	EUFAULA	70	—
2545	CITIZENS MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.8%	83.3	B	MO	BOLIVAR	111	—
2546	Countryside Care & Rehabilitation	0.8%	83.3	A	ID	Rupert	36	—
2547	TRANSITIONAL CARE SERVICES AT MERCY MEDICAL CENTER	0.8%	83.3	B	MD	BALTIMORE	35	MERCY HEALTH SERVICES INC
2548	WILLOWBROOKE CT SKILLED CARE CTR AT BAYLEIGH CHASE	0.8%	83.3	B	MD	EASTON	99	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2549	CLEARVISTA LAKE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.8%	83.3	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2550	THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK	0.8%	83.3	C	AR	HOT SPRINGS	80	—

Showing 2,501–2,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.