Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,551–2,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2551	Sherwood Oaks	0.8%	83.3	B	PA	CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP	43	—
2552	Spokane Veterans Home	0.8%	83.3	B	WA	SPOKANE	100	WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF VETE
2553	Good Samaritan Society - Albion	0.8%	83.3	B	NE	Albion	60	SANFORD
2554	WILLOWBROOKE CTSKDCARECTR AT FORTWASHINGTONESTATES	0.8%	83.3	A	PA	FORT WASHINGTON	9	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2555	WILLOWS OF SHELBYVILLE	0.8%	83.3	B	IN	SHELBYVILLE	121	MAJOR HOSPITAL
2556	MARYCREST MANOR	0.8%	83.3	A	CA	CULVER CITY	57	—
2557	Abernathy Laurels	0.8%	83.3	A	NC	Newton	174	EVERYAGE
2558	TWIN OAKS CENTER	0.8%	83.3	C	MA	DANVERS	101	—
2559	VERMILION HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.3	A	LA	KAPLAN	120	—
2560	Five Points of Pflugerville	0.8%	83.3	D	TX	PFLUGERVILLE	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
2561	Chelsea Retirement Community	0.8%	83.3	A	MI	Chelsea	85	UMRCPH INC
2562	BEAUTIFUL SAVIOR HOME	0.8%	83.3	A	MO	BELTON	126	—
2563	PIONEERS MEMORIAL SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.8%	83.3	F	CA	BRAWLEY	99	—
2564	JEWISH HOME & REHAB CENTER D/P SNF	0.8%	83.2	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	362	—
2565	WARRENSBURG MANOR CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.2	B	MO	WARRENSBURG	88	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2566	WESTMINSTER WINTER PARK	0.8%	83.2	C	FL	WINTER PARK	80	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
2567	Alpine Health and Rehabilitation of Asheboro	0.8%	83.2	B	NC	Asheboro	238	—
2568	Holdrege Memorial Homes, Inc	0.8%	83.2	A	NE	Holdrege	94	—
2569	WEST RIVER HEALTH CAMPUS	0.8%	83.2	D	IN	EVANSVILLE	61	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
2570	WALBRIDGE MEMORIAL CONVALESCENT WING	0.8%	83.2	A	CO	MEEKER	30	—
2571	Yampa Valley Healthcare Center	0.8%	83.2	D	CO	CRAIG	58	—
2572	SHATTUCK NURSING CENTER	0.8%	83.2	B	OK	SHATTUCK	60	—
2573	SULLIVAN COUNTY ADULT CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.2	D	NY	LIBERTY	146	COUNTY OF SULLIVAN
2574	PLEASANT VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.2	C	OK	MUSKOGEE	101	—
2575	SENECA PLACE	0.8%	83.2	D	PA	VERONA	174	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
2576	CHOWCHILLA MEMORIAL HEALTHCARE DISTRICT	0.8%	83.2	A	CA	CHOWCHILLA	29	—
2577	Windsor Point Continuing Care	0.8%	83.2	A	NC	Fuquay-Varina	45	—
2578	Millard County Care and Rehabilitation	0.8%	83.2	C	UT	Delta	60	TRADITIONS HEALTH CARE INC
2579	WEDGWOOD GARDENS CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.2	B	NJ	FREEHOLD	151	—
2580	Brook Stone Living Center	0.8%	83.2	C	NC	Pollocksville	80	—
2581	Serenity Estates of Lena	0.8%	83.2	D	IL	LENA	92	—
2582	Pleasant View Care Center	0.8%	83.2	A	IA	Whiting	70	—
2583	ELK RIVER HEALTH AND NURSING CENTER OF ARDMORE, LL	0.8%	83.2	B	TN	ARDMORE	79	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
2584	RISING STAR NURSING CENTER	0.8%	83.2	B	TX	RISING STAR	0	—
2585	Milwaukee Catholic Home	0.8%	83.2	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	107	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
2586	Harmony Physical Rehabilitation	0.8%	83.0	A	PA	MONROEVILLE	30	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
2587	Sunshine Terrace Skilled Nursing	0.8%	83.0	B	UT	Logan	172	—
2588	HOPE CENTER FOR H I V AND NURSING CARE	0.8%	83.0	B	NY	BRONX	66	—
2589	CAPSTONE HEALTHCARE OF HUGHES SPRINGS	0.8%	83.0	B	TX	HUGHES SPRINGS	0	—
2590	Wapello Specialty Care	0.8%	83.0	C	IA	Wapello	49	CARE INITIATIVES
2591	AVIR AT BAY CITY	0.8%	83.0	C	TX	BAY CITY	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
2592	Hillcrest Manor Sanitarium	0.8%	83.0	A	CA	NATIONAL CITY	98	—
2593	ST MARKS LIVING	0.8%	83.0	C	MN	AUSTIN	45	PARTNERS SENIOR LIVING OPTIONS LLC
2594	Edenbrook of Fond Du Lac	0.8%	83.0	C	WI	Fond Du Lac	90	—
2595	ASPIRE TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.8%	83.0	C	AZ	FLAGSTAFF	50	THE GOODMAN FAMILY OPERATING FOUNDATION
2596	CITIZENS CARE CENTER	0.8%	83.0	B	MD	HAVRE DE GRACE	184	—
2597	COUNTRYSIDE HEALTH CENTER	0.8%	83.0	C	KS	TOPEKA	97	—
2598	BEAR CREEK SENIOR LIVING	0.8%	83.0	B	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	45	—
2599	AVIR AT SAN AUGUSTINE	0.8%	83.0	C	TX	SAN AUGUSTINE	0	SUMMIT LTC MANAGEMENT LLC
2600	HERITAGE HEALTH CARE & REHAB INC	0.8%	83.0	A	AL	TUSCALOOSA	216	—

Showing 2,551–2,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.