Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,651–2,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2651	RIVERBEND HEIGHTS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.7	D	MO	LEXINGTON	154	HEITWELL HOLDINGS INC
2652	Bethany At Pacific	0.7%	82.7	B	WA	EVERETT	80	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST
2653	JENNINGS HALL	0.7%	82.7	A	OH	GARFIELD HEIGHTS	156	—
2654	Whispering Pines Nursing and Rehab, LLC	0.7%	82.7	C	WI	Ripon	50	—
2655	STONEBRIDGE HERMANN	0.7%	82.7	C	MO	HERMANN	118	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
2656	COLQUITT REGIONAL SENIOR CARE & REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.7	A	GA	MOULTRIE	59	—
2657	Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.7%	82.7	C	OH	XENIA	99	AAA EMINENT LLC
2658	MN Veterans Home Minneapolis	0.7%	82.6	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	341	—
2659	The Friendly Home	0.7%	82.6	A	NY	Rochester	200	—
2660	THE SEQUOIAS	0.7%	82.6	A	CA	PORTOLA VALLEY	43	SEQUOIA LIVING INC
2661	Gill Odd Fellows Home of Vermont	0.7%	82.6	A	VT	Ludlow	46	—
2662	Sunrise Terrace Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.7%	82.6	A	IA	Winfield	46	—
2663	INN AT SARASOTA BAY CLUB	0.7%	82.6	A	FL	SARASOTA	44	—
2664	GREENBRIAR AT THE ALTAMONT SKILLED NURSING FACILIT	0.7%	82.6	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	95	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
2665	LYNN HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.6	A	GA	GRAY	104	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2666	Moose Lake Village	0.7%	82.6	B	MN	MOOSE LAKE	60	CASSIA
2667	Avera Creighton Care Centre	0.7%	82.6	A	NE	Creighton	47	AVERA HEALTH
2668	ST. JOSEPH'S NURSING HOME	0.7%	82.6	A	MD	CATONSVILLE	44	—
2669	Kirkland Village	0.7%	82.6	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	60	PHI
2670	WALKER REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	0.7%	82.6	F	AL	CARBON HILL	59	—
2671	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN RESTMOR	0.7%	82.6	A	IL	MORTON	62	—
2672	JONES CO REST HOME	0.7%	82.6	A	MS	ELLISVILLE	122	SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
2673	MAGNOLIA HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.6	A	AL	TUSKEGEE	111	—
2674	Emerald Nursing & Rehab Legacy Pointe llc	0.7%	82.6	D	NE	Omaha	108	—
2675	Oakridge Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center L	0.7%	82.6	D	MI	Ferndale	64	—
2676	WARDE HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.6	A	NH	WINDHAM	32	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
2677	Plainview Manor	0.7%	82.6	A	NE	Plainview	39	—
2678	MAINE VETERANS HOME - SCARBOROUGH	0.7%	82.6	A	ME	SCARBOROUGH	120	MAINE VETERANS HOME
2679	NAZARETH LIVING CENTER	0.7%	82.5	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	121	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
2680	LAKE CHARLES CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.5	A	LA	LAKE CHARLES	182	—
2681	TRUMAN LAKE MANOR INC	0.7%	82.5	C	MO	LOWRY CITY	120	—
2682	Edenbrook of Wisconsin Rapids	0.7%	82.5	B	WI	Wisconsin Rapids	80	—
2683	CRESTVIEW HOME	0.7%	82.5	C	MO	BETHANY	92	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2684	BUCKINGHAM PAVILION	0.7%	82.5	D	IL	CHICAGO	235	—
2685	MONTEZUMA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	82.5	B	GA	MONTEZUMA	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2686	Westchester Manor at Providence Place	0.7%	82.5	A	NC	High Point	129	EVERYAGE
2687	SUMMITVIEW REHAB AND HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.5	B	WA	YAKIMA	78	HUMANGOOD
2688	COUNTRYSIDE HEALTH & REHAB OF NEWTON COUNTY	0.7%	82.5	A	AR	JASPER	70	—
2689	OXFORD HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.5	B	PA	OXFORD	90	PHI
2690	SMP HEALTH - ST CATHERINE SOUTH	0.7%	82.5	A	ND	FARGO	98	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION HEALTH SYSTEM
2691	WESTMINSTER WOODS AT HUNTINGDO	0.7%	82.5	A	PA	HUNTINGDON	64	PHI
2692	OAKS HEALTH CTR AT THE MARSHES OF SKIDAWAY ISLAND	0.7%	82.5	A	GA	SAVANNAH	23	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2693	HARTSVILLE CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.7%	82.5	C	TN	HARTSVILLE	95	—
2694	Pearsall Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.7%	82.3	B	TX	Pearsall	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2695	Pine Grove Nursing Center	0.7%	82.3	C	TX	Center	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
2696	Menig Nursing Home	0.7%	82.3	B	VT	Randolph Center	30	—
2697	Hope Springs at Minnetonka	0.7%	82.3	D	MN	MINNETONKA	21	—
2698	Quitman Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.7%	82.3	D	TX	QUITMAN	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2699	WINDRIDGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.3	A	OK	MIAMI	100	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
2700	Margate Health and Rehabilitation, LLC	0.7%	82.3	F	NC	Jefferson	210	—

Showing 2,651–2,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.