Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,201–3,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3201	MARCUS DALY MEM HOSP TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	MT	HAMILTON	—	—
3202	(CLOSED) RIVER PARK HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	NASHVILLE	0	—
3203	MEDSTAR CARE CENTER INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GIDDINGS	0	—
3204	PAWTUXET VILLAGE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	RI	WARWICK	—	—
3205	BRANDYWINE SENIOR LIVING AT WALL	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	WALL	—	—
3206	GRAND OAKS CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CO	LAKEWOOD	—	—
3207	VISTA NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	HEAVENER	0	—
3208	FAITH RIDGE LIFE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	MALVERN	—	—
3209	CMH - SKILLED UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	BOILING SPRINGS	—	—
3210	WOODLAND HEIGHTS MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UN	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	LUFKIN	—	—
3211	MORGAN MEMORIAL TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	MADISON	—	—
3212	WILDER HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	DADEVILLE	0	—
3213	PAULS VALLEY GENERAL HOSPITAL SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	PAULS VALLEY	0	—
3214	COOLIDGE HOUSE	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	BROOKLINE	—	—
3215	AINSWORTH CARE CENTER, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	AINSWORTH	0	—
3216	THE HOULTON REG PROG CARE FAC	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	HOULTON	—	—
3217	COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	WILBURTON	0	—
3218	AUTUMN HEALTHCARE OF ZANESVILLE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	ZANESVILLE	0	—
3219	AUGUST HEALTHCARE BRIDGEPORT	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	BRIDGEPORT	0	—
3220	HEALDTON NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	HEALDTON	0	—
3221	REDEEMER HEALTH & REHAB OF PICKENS	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	PICKENS	0	—
3222	BRUNSWICK NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	AMITYVILLE	0	—
3223	HORN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	WOOSTER	—	—
3224	LAKEVIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	FIRTH	—	—
3225	Apple Rehab Clipper	0.6%	77.5	C	RI	Westerly	60	—
3226	REST HAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	TULSA	0	—
3227	MOBERLY REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	MOBERLY	0	—
3228	ST JOHN'S REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	JOPLIN	0	—
3229	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - WATERVILLE	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	WATERVILLE	—	—
3230	WILLMAR CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	WILLMAR	—	—
3231	PALO DURO NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	AMARILLO	—	—
3232	MCKEE MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME-TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	CO	LOVELAND	—	—
3233	UPMC PASSAVANT TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	PITTSBURGH	—	—
3234	GODDARD HOUSE, A SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	BOSTON	—	—
3235	ROOSEVELT MEM NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MT	CULBERTSON	—	—
3236	QUINCY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	QUINCY	—	—
3237	LITCHFIELD NURSING AND REHABILITATION COMMUNITY	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	LITCHFIELD	0	—
3238	JAMES LAWRENCE KERNAN	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	0	—
3239	COPPER CREEK PLAZA	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	BUFFALO	0	—
3240	WABASH SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	WABASH	—	—
3241	HALLMARK HC OF CARLINVILLE	0.6%	77.5	C	IL	CARLINVILLE	49	FEJCC TRUST
3242	EMERALD POINTE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	GALENA	0	—
3243	AVAMERE GEORGIAN HOUSE OF LAKEWOOD	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	TACOMA	—	—
3244	CONSULTAMERICA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	BIRMINGHAM	0	—
3245	ST RAPHAEL'S TCU @ HOLY FAMILY	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	METHUEN	—	—
3246	BROADFIELD CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	MADISON	—	—
3247	JOHNS HOPKINS BAYVIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
3248	COLUMBIA VIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	CATHLAMET	—	—
3249	VIDANT PUNGO HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	BELHAVEN	—	—
3250	STONEYBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	BENTON	—	—

Showing 3,201–3,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.