Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,351–3,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3351	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF NORFOLK	3.4%	80.1	C	VA	NORFOLK	169	WHEATEN LLC
3352	Douglasville Center for Nursing and Healing LLC	3.4%	80.1	C	GA	DOUGLASVILLE	246	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
3353	RIVER TERRACE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CTR	3.4%	80.1	A	MA	LANCASTER	82	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3354	CASITAS CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.1	B	CA	GRANADA HILLS	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3355	ALL SAINT'S MAUBERT	3.4%	80.1	B	CA	SAN LEANDRO	14	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3356	VILLA DEL RIO GARDENS	3.4%	80.1	C	CA	BELL GARDENS	84	—
3357	Zearing Health Care, LLC	3.4%	80.1	A	IA	Zearing	40	—
3358	BUCKINGHAM AT NORWOOD, THE	3.4%	80.1	F	NJ	NORWOOD	240	—
3359	HARTFORD HEALTH CARE	3.4%	80.1	A	AL	HARTFORD	86	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
3360	PULASKI HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	B	IN	WINAMAC	58	—
3361	STELLA MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.0	B	AR	RUSSELLVILLE	124	—
3362	PruittHealth-Union Pointe	3.4%	80.0	C	NC	Monroe	90	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3363	ROCKAWAY CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	D	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	228	—
3364	LA PAZ GEROPSYCHIATRIC CENTER	3.4%	80.0	D	CA	PARAMOUNT	173	—
3365	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	3.4%	80.0	C	NE	Blair	84	—
3366	VANCREST HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	C	OH	VAN WERT	93	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
3367	Edgemont Healthcare	3.4%	80.0	B	KY	Cynthiana	68	—
3368	NEW ALBANY CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	C	OH	COLUMBUS	67	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
3369	RULEME CENTER	3.4%	80.0	A	FL	EUSTIS	138	LCE PARTNERS LLC
3370	AUTUMN CARE OF MECHANICSVILLE	3.4%	80.0	B	VA	MECHANICSVILLE	169	BNV DYNASTY LLC
3371	CORNERSTONE GARDENS LLP	3.4%	80.0	D	TX	TEMPLE	130	BURMONT INC
3372	Liberty Commons Nsg and Rehab Ctr of Rowan County	3.4%	80.0	A	NC	Salisbury	90	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3373	AVENTURA AT PROSPECT	3.4%	80.0	C	PA	PROSPECT PARK	180	—
3374	Mount Carmel Bluffs	3.4%	80.0	B	IA	Dubuque	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
3375	EASTBROOK HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	C	OH	CLEVELAND	109	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
3376	MITCHELL'S NURSING HOME, INC	3.4%	80.0	B	AR	DANVILLE	105	—
3377	Northchase Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.0	B	NC	Wilmington	140	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
3378	Sunny Hill Care Center	3.4%	80.0	C	IA	Tama	57	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
3379	BAYWOOD CROSSING REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTE	3.4%	80.0	A	TX	PASADENA	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
3380	LEXINGTON COURT CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.0	B	OH	LEXINGTON	75	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
3381	LIFE CARE CENTER OF NEW PORT RICHEY	3.4%	80.0	A	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	113	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3382	DARBY GLENN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.0	C	OH	HILLIARD	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3383	LAKELAND REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.3%	79.9	C	IN	ANGOLA	75	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3384	Claiborne Rehabilitation	3.3%	79.9	B	LA	Homer	70	—
3385	RIDGECREST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.3%	79.9	B	AR	JONESBORO	135	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3386	Spanish Meadows	3.3%	79.9	D	TX	Brownsville	119	—
3387	KENNEBUNK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	3.3%	79.9	C	ME	KENNEBUNK	78	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3388	NAPA VALLEY CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.9	B	CA	NAPA	130	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3389	TRELLIS CENTENNIAL	3.3%	79.9	B	NV	LAS VEGAS	72	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3390	LAKEPOINT EL DORADO, LLC	3.3%	79.9	F	KS	EL DORADO	75	MANHATTAN RETIREMENT FOUNDATION INC
3391	Sunrise Manor Nursing Home	3.3%	79.9	A	KY	Hodgenville	137	WHEATEN LLC
3392	Fairlane Senior Care and Rehab Center	3.3%	79.9	B	MI	Detroit	180	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3393	WESTGATE	3.3%	79.9	C	MO	JOPLIN	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3394	Stonegate Health Campus	3.3%	79.9	B	MI	Lapeer	80	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3395	Oakridge Gardens Nur Ctr, Inc	3.3%	79.9	A	WI	Menasha	106	—
3396	The Villa at the Park	3.3%	79.8	B	MI	Highland Park	114	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
3397	Chautauqua Guest Home #2	3.3%	79.8	A	IA	Charles City	53	FLOYD COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL COMMISSION
3398	Pheasant Ridge Nursing and Rehabilitation	3.3%	79.8	B	VA	ROANOKE	101	SNF MGR LLC
3399	CARE CENTER OF ABERDEEN	3.3%	79.8	B	MS	ABERDEEN	105	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3400	ROSE LANE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.3%	79.8	A	OH	MASSILLON	171	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 3,351–3,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.