Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,351–3,400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3351	BIRMINGHAM HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	RUSK	0	—
3352	ST ANTHONYS HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	0	—
3353	TAYLORVILLE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	TAYLORVILLE	—	—
3354	GLENWOOD CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	LOWELL	—	—
3355	KINDRED NURSING AND REHABILITATION-GODDARD	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	STOUGHTON	—	—
3356	MIDCOAST HOSPITAL - BRUNSWICK	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	BRUNSWICK	—	—
3357	HAVEN HEALTH CENTER OF CAPE ELIZABETH	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	CAPE ELIZABETH	0	—
3358	GOVERNOR WINTHROP NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	WINTHROP	0	—
3359	CRESTWOOD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	WHIPPANY	—	—
3360	DOMINICAN HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SANTA CRUZ	—	—
3361	GROVE GARDENS CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MARSHALL	0	—
3362	SUTTER TRANSITIONAL AND RESPIRATORY SERVICES	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ROSEVILLE	—	—
3363	MERCER ISLAND CARE & REHAB CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	MERCER ISLAND	—	—
3364	PROSPECT NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	VT	NORTH BENNINGTON	—	—
3365	CANTERBURY THE	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	PALOS VERDES ESTATES	—	—
3366	MERCY FRANCISCAN TERRACE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—
3367	MORRIS LINCOLN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	MORRIS	—	—
3368	EMPORIA REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	EMPORIA	0	—
3369	WETHERSFIELD HEALTH CARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	WETHERSFIELD	—	—
3370	CEDARDALE HEALTH CARE CENTRE INC	0.6%	77.5	—	CO	WRAY	0	—
3371	STRATFORD NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	STRATFORD	0	—
3372	BALL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL-TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	MUNCIE	—	—
3373	BERKELEY MEADOWS	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	BERKELEY HEIGHTS	—	—
3374	TORRANCE CARE CENTER EAST	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	TORRANCE	—	—
3375	MEADOWWOOD CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	GEORGETOWN	—	—
3376	CENTERCLAIR	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	LEXINGTON	—	—
3377	REUNION PLAZA HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	A	TX	TYLER	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3378	CHENAL HEIGHTS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	LITTLE ROCK	—	—
3379	(CLOSED) ST FRANCIS HOSP SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	MEMPHIS	0	—
3380	LAMESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	LAMESA	—	—
3381	PEKIN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	PEKIN	—	—
3382	ALYCE G CLARKE CENTER FOR MEDICALLY FRAGILE CHILDR	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	JACKSON	—	—
3383	SUNNYVIEW HEALTH CARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	PRINCETON	—	—
3384	MANOR OF WAYNE SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	WAYNE	—	—
3385	Omega Health & Rehab of Greenville, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	Greenville	—	—
3386	MERCY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	WATERTOWN	—	—
3387	MARY EVANS EXTENDED CARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	ELLWOOD CITY	—	—
3388	HEARDMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	C	GA	ELBERTON	60	—
3389	FINLEY HOSPITAL (THE)	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	DUBUQUE	0	—
3390	MERCY HEALTH CARE REHAB CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	HOMEWOOD	0	—
3391	PALOMAR CONTINUING CARE CENTER D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ESCONDIDO	—	—
3392	CLAY CENTER PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.6%	77.5	A	KS	CLAY CENTER	30	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
3393	TUELL NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	MELROSE	—	—
3394	GERMANTOWN HOME	0.6%	77.5	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
3395	HEBREW HOME OF SOUTH BEACH	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	MIAMI BEACH	—	—
3396	CRESTPARK RETIREMENT HELENA, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	HELENA	—	—
3397	STOCKBRIDGE COUNTRY MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	STOCKBRIDGE	0	—
3398	FOX RIVER PAVILION	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	AURORA	0	—
3399	JOHN J FOLEY SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	YAPHANK	—	—
3400	LENOIR MEMORIAL HOSPITAL TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	KINSTON	—	—

Showing 3,351–3,400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.