Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,151–5,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5151	FOUNTAIN VIEW MANOR, INC	0.3%	66.4	C	OK	HENRYETTA	119	—
5152	ALEXANDRIA CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	IN	ALEXANDRIA	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5153	QUEEN ANNE NURSING HOME, INC	0.3%	66.4	A	MA	HINGHAM	106	—
5154	DESOTO HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	MS	SOUTHAVEN	120	—
5155	DUNKIRK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	DUNKIRK	40	—
5156	Southgate Health Care Center	0.3%	66.4	D	IL	METROPOLIS	140	—
5157	ENVIVE OF EVANSVILLE	0.3%	66.4	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	200	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5158	NEW GLEN OAKS NURSING HOME, INC	0.3%	66.4	A	NY	GLEN OAKS	60	—
5159	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.3%	66.4	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	114	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5160	Emerald Nursing & Rehab Columbus	0.3%	66.4	C	NE	Columbus	145	YCNE OPERATIONS LLC
5161	Newcare	0.3%	66.4	A	WI	Crivitz	43	—
5162	HERITAGE PLACE	0.3%	66.4	A	AK	SOLDOTNA	60	—
5163	DOWNTOWN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	66.4	D	TX	FORT WORTH	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5164	MONROE COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.4	—	OH	WOODSFIELD	60	—
5165	THE PRESERVE AT FAIRFIELD GLADE	0.3%	65.8	C	TN	CROSSVILLE	60	SANFORD
5166	Aaron Manor Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.3%	65.8	A	NY	Fairport	140	—
5167	REGENCY CANYON LAKES REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	WA	KENNEWICK	53	—
5168	NEW BRIGHTON CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	MN	NEW BRIGHTON	57	—
5169	CATON PARK REHAB AND NURSING CENTER, L L C	0.3%	65.8	B	NY	BROOKLYN	119	—
5170	CANDLER SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.3%	65.8	A	GA	SAVANNAH	22	ST JOSEPHS CANDLER HEALTH SYSTEM INC
5171	Grace Care Center of Henrietta	0.3%	65.8	C	TX	Henrietta	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5172	CAPITOL HILL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	284	TURENNE & ASSOCIATES LLC
5173	SOUTHLAND NURSING HOME	0.3%	65.8	A	AL	MARION	91	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
5174	HILLEBRAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	C	OH	CINCINNATI	108	—
5175	EDGERTON CARE CENTER, INC	0.3%	65.8	B	WI	EDGERTON	61	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
5176	THE OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	C	OK	POTEAU	158	MATRIX PROVIDER SOLUTIONS LLC
5177	MESQUITE TREE NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	TX	MESQUITE	0	MESQUITE HC SNF LLC
5178	OASIS AT THE KEYS NURSING AND REHAB	0.3%	65.8	B	FL	TAVERNIER	120	—
5179	WILSON NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	—	OK	WILSON	70	—
5180	Avamere Rehabilitation Of Hillsboro	0.3%	65.8	B	OR	HILLSBORO	87	—
5181	Grancare Nursing Center	0.3%	65.8	A	WI	Green Bay	64	—
5182	SOLHEIM SENIOR COMMUNITY	0.3%	65.8	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	76	—
5183	NORTHSIDE NURSING HOME	0.3%	65.8	—	OK	SAPULPA	69	—
5184	AVIATA AT SAN JOSE	0.3%	65.8	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
5185	SILVERSTONE PLACE	0.3%	65.8	C	MO	ROLLA	110	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
5186	GOWANDA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	NY	GOWANDA	160	—
5187	Ostrander Care And Rehab	0.3%	65.8	A	MN	OSTRANDER	25	SENIOR MANAGEMENT INC
5188	Avondale Health and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	0.3%	65.8	C	TN	HUMBOLDT	89	TN3 OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5189	JOHN KNOX VILLAGE OF POMPANO BEACH	0.3%	65.8	A	FL	POMPANO BEACH	194	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
5190	FAR ROCKAWAY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.3%	65.8	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	100	—
5191	PRUITTHEALTH - PENSACOLA, LLC	0.3%	65.8	A	FL	PENSACOLA	120	—
5192	SUNHARBOR MANOR	0.3%	65.8	B	NY	ROSLYN HEIGHTS	266	—
5193	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE MERRITT ISLAND	0.3%	65.8	B	FL	MERRITT ISLAND	180	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
5194	ATLAS HEALTHCARE AT SEASHORE GARDENS	0.3%	65.8	B	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	151	—
5195	Laramie Health and Rehabilitation	0.3%	65.8	D	WY	Laramie	105	SNH TRS INC
5196	MAJESTIC CARE OF BLOOMINGTON	0.3%	65.8	C	IN	BLOOMINGTON	158	COLUMBUS REGIONAL HOSPITAL
5197	A GRACE SUB ACUTE & SKILLED CARE	0.3%	65.8	B	CA	SAN JOSE	166	—
5198	MEDICALODGES DEWEY	0.3%	65.8	B	OK	DEWEY	58	MEDICALODGES INC
5199	GARDEN VIEW CARE CENTER AT DOUGHERTY FERRY	0.3%	65.8	A	MO	VALLEY PARK	66	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
5200	MORRISTOWN POST ACUTE REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	NJ	MORRISTOWN	287	—

Showing 5,151–5,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.