Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,101–6,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6101	Silver Oak Nursing and Rehabilitation Center LLC	0.2%	60.1	D	IA	Marion	91	—
6102	WHEATRIDGE PARK CARE CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	KS	LIBERAL	51	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
6103	Caribou Rehab and Nursing Center	0.2%	60.1	B	ME	CARIBOU	72	—
6104	GLENVUE HEALTH & REHAB	0.2%	60.1	C	GA	GLENNVILLE	160	REGIONAL HEALTH PROPERTIES INC
6105	The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab	0.2%	60.1	B	OH	CANAL FULTON	60	NPNH1 LLC
6106	HAYM SOLOMON HOME FOR THE AGED	0.2%	60.1	A	NY	BROOKLYN	240	—
6107	WILLOW SPRINGS CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	60.1	B	WA	YAKIMA	75	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
6108	SPRING MILL HEALTH CAMPUS	0.2%	60.1	C	IN	MERRILLVILLE	64	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6109	THE BLOSSOMS AT CONWAY REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	AR	CONWAY	104	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
6110	RIVER OAKS SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.2%	60.1	B	OK	EL RENO	120	BRIDGES ESOP INC
6111	Accura HealthCare of Tekamah	0.2%	60.1	C	NE	Tekamah	44	AVENUE94 LLC
6112	STUART REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.2%	60.1	B	FL	STUART	120	—
6113	Jesse Helms Nursing Center	0.2%	60.1	B	NC	Monroe	70	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
6114	BORO PARK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.2%	60.1	A	NY	BROOKLYN	510	—
6115	VALLEY VIEW MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	60.1	A	NY	NORWICH	82	—
6116	Brentwood Health Center	0.2%	60.1	A	RI	Warwick	96	—
6117	NESHOBA COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	60.1	A	MS	PHILADELPHIA	145	—
6118	Paradigm at Sweeny	0.2%	60.1	C	TX	Sweeny	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
6119	TOWNHOUSE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	0.2%	60.1	B	NY	UNIONDALE	280	—
6120	Spring Meadows Health and Rehabilitation	0.2%	60.1	A	TN	CLARKSVILLE	121	—
6121	THE BLOSSOMS AT WHITE RIVER REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	AR	NEWPORT	130	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
6122	Avir at Pilot Point	0.2%	60.1	A	TX	PILOT POINT	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6123	GOLD CITY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	60.1	D	GA	DAHLONEGA	102	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
6124	PORT ST LUCIE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.2%	60.1	A	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	180	—
6125	TORRINGTON CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC	0.2%	60.1	A	CT	TORRINGTON	75	—
6126	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY-BOARDMAN	0.2%	60.1	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	57	—
6127	LAUREL HEIGHTS COMMUNITY CARE	0.2%	60.1	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	32	—
6128	BEAUMONT REHAB & SKILLED NURSING CTR - NATICK	0.2%	59.2	C	MA	NATICK	53	CONTINUING CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
6129	AVENTURA AT SHILOH SPRINGS	0.2%	59.2	C	OH	TROTWOOD	84	—
6130	LUTHER MANOR	0.2%	59.2	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	99	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
6131	CLARK'S MOUNTAIN NURSING CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	MO	PIEDMONT	91	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
6132	AVALON SPRINGS CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	PA	MERCER	100	UPMC
6133	Deerings Nursing and Rehabilitation, LP	0.2%	59.2	D	TX	Odessa	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
6134	Broken Bow Health and Rehab	0.2%	59.2	C	OK	Broken Bow	105	MATRIX PROVIDER SOLUTIONS LLC
6135	LITCHFIELD HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	IL	LITCHFIELD	92	LIGHT MAN LLC
6136	Countryside	0.2%	59.2	A	NC	Stokesdale	60	—
6137	THE DALLES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	B	OR	THE DALLES	121	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
6138	NEW PALTZ CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.2%	59.2	B	NY	NEW PALTZ	79	—
6139	St. Rose Hospital D/P SNF/Sub-Acute	0.2%	59.2	—	CA	HAYWARD	29	HAYWARD SISTERS HOSPITAL
6140	Boulder Park Terrace	0.2%	59.2	B	MI	Charlevoix	72	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
6141	Lindan Park Care Center LP	0.2%	59.2	F	TX	Richardson	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6142	BENSONHURST CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE	0.2%	59.2	A	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
6143	FALL RIVER JEWISH HOME	0.2%	59.2	D	MA	FALL RIVER	62	—
6144	CARTHAGE SENIOR CARE	0.2%	59.2	A	MS	CARTHAGE	60	—
6145	Medicine Wheel Village	0.2%	59.2	C	SD	EAGLE BUTTE	50	—
6146	Skyland Terrace and Rehabilitation	0.2%	59.2	B	NC	Waynesville	90	—
6147	PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC	0.2%	59.2	D	AR	PIGGOTT	105	STONEWALL HCG LLC
6148	Crestway Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.2%	59.2	D	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6149	WEST HAVEN CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	B	CT	WEST HAVEN	98	—
6150	AVIATA AT LAKE MARY	0.2%	59.2	B	FL	LAKE MARY	120	—

Showing 6,101–6,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.