Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,851–6,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6851	ROLLING HILLS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	IN	NEW ALBANY	115	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6852	Village Point	0.1%	54.9	B	NJ	MONROE TOWNSHIP	120	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
6853	NORTH CENTRAL HEALTH CARE	0.1%	54.9	B	WI	WAUSAU	159	—
6854	MEDICALODGES ATCHISON	0.1%	54.9	A	KS	ATCHISON	60	MEDICALODGES INC
6855	THE REHABILITATION CENTER OF LOS ANGELES	0.1%	54.9	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	180	—
6856	SYMPHONY MAPLE CREST	0.1%	54.9	D	IL	BELVIDERE	86	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
6857	Nazareth Living Care Center	0.1%	54.9	C	TX	El Paso	0	EL PASO COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6858	Nye Pointe Health & Rehab Ctr	0.1%	54.9	A	NE	Fremont	43	PARAGON MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6859	FUTURE CARE NORTHPOINT	0.1%	54.9	A	MD	BALTIMORE	180	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
6860	PINNACLE HEALTH & REHAB AT N BERWICK	0.1%	54.9	B	ME	NORTH BERWICK	64	—
6861	Maplewood Nursing Home Inc	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	Webster	74	—
6862	Thatcher Brook Rehabilitation & Care Center	0.1%	54.9	A	UT	Clearfield	30	—
6863	RIVER CITY CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
6864	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ROCHESTER	0.1%	54.9	C	IN	ROCHESTER	108	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
6865	COUNTRY COURT	0.1%	54.9	C	OH	MOUNT VERNON	84	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
6866	GLEN ISLAND CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	54.9	B	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	183	—
6867	Oakview Nursing Home	0.1%	54.9	A	IA	Conrad	46	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
6868	CHESAPEAKE SHORES NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	MD	LEXINGTON PARK	125	—
6869	RIVERCHASE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	FL	QUINCY	120	—
6870	Good Samaritan Society - International Falls	0.1%	54.9	C	MN	INTERNATIONAL FALLS	54	SANFORD
6871	PARKWAY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	MO	KANSAS CITY	97	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
6872	MAJESTIC CARE OF CARMEL	0.1%	54.9	C	IN	CARMEL	94	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6873	StoneCreek Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	54.9	C	NC	Asheville	120	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
6874	Hillcrest Care & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	54.9	C	MN	MANKATO	95	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
6875	MANOR, THE	0.1%	54.9	C	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	90	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6876	MT BAKER CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	WA	BELLINGHAM	70	NIGHTINGALE HEALTHCARE LLC
6877	SILSBEE OAKS HEALTH CARE LLP	0.1%	54.9	C	TX	SILSBEE	160	—
6878	REGALCARE AT GREENFIELD	0.1%	54.9	B	MA	GREENFIELD	120	RC OPCO HOLDCO LLC
6879	CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER OF UNICOI COUNTY	0.1%	54.9	A	TN	ERWIN	50	—
6880	Hopkins Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	54.9	C	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	90	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
6881	SOUTH HAMPTON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	AL	OWENS CROSS ROADS	81	PRESTON HEALTH SERVICES INC
6882	GILLESPIE HEALTH & REHAB CTR	0.1%	54.9	B	IL	GILLESPIE	100	LIGHT MAN LLC
6883	GHENT REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	NY	GHENT	120	—
6884	HILLTOP PARK REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	D	TX	WEATHERFORD	0	PARKER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6885	LUXE AT WELLINGTON REHABILITATION CENTER THE	0.1%	54.9	C	FL	WELLINGTON	120	—
6886	TERRACE AT BISHOP'S GLEN, THE	0.1%	54.9	C	FL	HOLLY HILL	60	WHEAT CHAFF LP
6887	BEECH TREE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	54.9	D	TN	JELLICO	110	—
6888	LAKEPOINT AUGUSTA, LLC	0.1%	54.9	D	KS	AUGUSTA	88	MANHATTAN RETIREMENT FOUNDATION INC
6889	THE BRISTOL CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	FL	TAMPA	266	—
6890	THE SPRINGS BATESVILLE	0.1%	54.9	B	AR	BATESVILLE	150	WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
6891	Good Samaritan - Holstein	0.1%	54.9	D	IA	Holstein	60	SANFORD
6892	Prince George Healthcare Center	0.1%	54.9	A	SC	Georgetown	148	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
6893	NORTHAMPTON MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	0.1%	54.9	D	MD	FREDERICK	196	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
6894	EDENBROOK NORTH	0.1%	54.9	D	PA	WILLIAMSPORT	152	LZ PA HOLDINGS LLC
6895	UNIVERSITY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	FL	MIAMI	148	—
6896	COMPLETE CARE AT KIMBERLY HALL-SOUTH	0.1%	54.9	C	CT	WINDSOR	180	SMS 2021 TRUST
6897	ROBERTSDALE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CTR	0.1%	54.9	A	AL	ROBERTSDALE	152	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
6898	THE WOODS, A NIGHTINGALE COMMUNITY	0.1%	54.9	C	AR	MONTICELLO	122	SRI NIGHTINGALE LLC
6899	UNION CITY CARE CENTER	0.1%	54.9	A	OH	UNION CITY	43	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
6900	Kewaunee Health Services	0.1%	54.9	A	WI	Kewaunee	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC

Showing 6,851–6,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.