Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,901–6,950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6901	MARLBOROUGH HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	F	CT	MARLBOROUGH	120	—
6902	AMHERST MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	54.9	A	OH	AMHERST	114	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6903	DES ARC NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	54.9	C	AR	DES ARC	98	JEJ ASSETS LP
6904	Robertson County Health Care Facility	0.1%	54.9	B	KY	Mount Olivet	60	KENNEDY KY HOLDINGS LLC
6905	Avera Mother Joseph Manor Retirement Community	0.1%	54.9	B	SD	ABERDEEN	81	AVERA HEALTH
6906	THE PAVILION AT STOW FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATIO	0.1%	54.9	B	OH	STOW	51	NPNH1 LLC
6907	PRUITTHEALTH - WARNER ROBINS LLC	0.1%	54.9	A	GA	WARNER ROBINS	66	HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
6908	MEMORIAL MEDICAL NURSING CENTER	0.1%	54.9	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6909	ARCHBOLD LIVING CAIRO	0.1%	54.9	A	GA	CAIRO	75	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
6910	Whittier Westborough Transitional Care Unit	0.1%	54.9	A	MA	WESTBOROUGH	19	WHITTIER HEALTHCARE TRUST
6911	Harmony Village of Warren	0.1%	54.9	F	MI	Warren	178	MISSION POINT METRO HOLDING LLC
6912	TREND HEALTH AND REHAB OF HOUSTON	0.1%	54.9	A	MS	HOUSTON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
6913	Lillian Carter Health Center by Harborview	0.1%	54.9	B	GA	PLAINS	100	MID GA HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
6914	Birkwood Village of Fort Madison	0.1%	54.9	C	IA	Fort Madison	80	—
6915	Avir at Elkhart	0.1%	54.9	C	TX	ELKHART	0	LOH MANAGEMENT LLC
6916	The Orchards at Douglas Cove	0.1%	54.9	B	MI	Douglas	51	—
6917	YAKIMA VALLEY SCHOOL	0.1%	54.9	B	WA	SELAH	112	—
6918	TWIN OAKS HEALTH AND REHAB	0.1%	54.9	A	KS	LANSING	70	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
6919	COLONIAL VILLAGE	0.1%	54.9	B	KS	OVERLAND PARK	40	WSG LLC
6920	White County Rehab and Nursing	0.1%	54.9	D	IL	CARMI	74	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
6921	CRESTWOOD TERRACE	0.1%	54.9	F	IL	CRESTWOOD	126	—
6922	RIVER POINTE OF TRINITY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITAT	0.1%	54.9	B	TX	TRINITY	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
6923	BROWARD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	198	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
6924	KULA HOSPITAL	0.1%	53.5	A	HI	KULA	105	KAISER FOUNDATION HOSPITALS
6925	BROOKSIDE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.1%	53.5	B	KS	OVERBROOK	60	JOYA LIVING & HEALTHCARE INC
6926	CARRIAGE INN OF STEUBENVILLE	0.1%	53.5	C	OH	STEUBENVILLE	120	BROWN & MURPHY HOLDING COMPANY INC
6927	AVENUE AT BROOKLYN	0.1%	53.5	C	OH	BROOKLYN	111	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
6928	Greenville Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	53.5	C	NC	Greenville	120	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
6929	HENDRICK SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	53.5	A	TX	ABILENE	20	HENDRICK MEDICAL CENTER
6930	ALTA BATES SUMMIT MED CTR - HERRICK CAMPUS D/P SNF	0.1%	53.5	—	CA	BERKELEY	—	SUTTER BAY HOSPITALS
6931	Premier Health Care Center	0.1%	53.5	F	TX	Ranger	50	—
6932	AVANTE AT MELBOURNE INC	0.1%	53.5	B	FL	MELBOURNE	110	AG HOLDINGS INC
6933	SHELBY POINTE	0.1%	53.5	A	OH	SHELBY	45	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
6934	GREENWOOD NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	A	MA	WAKEFIELD	36	—
6935	Avir at Comfort	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	COMFORT	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6936	RIVERVIEW ESTATES REHAB AND SENIOR LIVING CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	NJ	RIVERTON	66	—
6937	SCENIC HILLS AT THE MONASTERY	0.1%	53.5	B	IN	FERDINAND	88	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
6938	RICHMOND POST ACUTE CARE	0.1%	53.5	A	CA	RICHMOND	35	—
6939	LYDIA TAFT HOUSE	0.1%	53.5	C	MA	UXBRIDGE	53	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
6940	PLUM CITY CARE CTR	0.1%	53.5	A	WI	PLUM CITY	50	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
6941	ST CRISPIN LIVING COMMUNITY	0.1%	53.5	B	MN	RED WING	64	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
6942	MOUNTAIN MEADOWS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	53.5	B	AR	BATESVILLE	110	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6943	DELANO DISTRICT SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	53.5	C	CA	DELANO	141	—
6944	Timothy Daniels House	0.1%	53.5	B	MA	HOLLISTON	40	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
6945	SPRING CITY CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	C	TN	SPRING CITY	138	WHEATEN LLC
6946	RIO GRANDE CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	53.5	B	TX	RIO GRANDE CITY	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6947	The Villa at Traverse Point	0.1%	53.5	C	MI	Traverse City	96	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
6948	Seasons Healthcare and Rehabilitation	0.1%	53.5	A	UT	St. George	53	TRADITIONS HEALTH CARE INC
6949	Deer Park Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	53.5	D	NC	Nebo	140	CTNC HOLDINGS LLC
6950	CRESTWOOD RIDGE SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	53.5	B	OH	HILLSBORO	50	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC

Showing 6,901–6,950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.