Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,751–7,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7751	MINERAL SPRINGS	0.1%	49.0	C	NH	NORTH CONWAY	87	603 HEALTHCARE LLC
7752	LIVINGSTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	F	MT	LIVINGSTON	115	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
7753	Adrian Bay Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.1%	49.0	B	MI	Adrian	117	SPRINGS BAY OP HOLDCO LLC
7754	Bethany Home - Brandon	0.1%	49.0	A	SD	BRANDON	60	AUGUSTANA LUTHERAN CHURCH
7755	RIDGE CREST NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	D	MO	WARRENSBURG	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7756	NEWARK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	49.0	A	DE	NEWARK	67	—
7757	ARARAT CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.1%	49.0	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	42	ARARAT HOME OF LOS ANGELES INC
7758	THE BLOSSOMS AT STAMPS REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	AR	STAMPS	94	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
7759	MORAN MANOR	0.1%	49.0	B	KS	MORAN	45	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
7760	ALPINE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	57	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7761	WINDSOR HOUSE AT CHAMPION	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	CHAMPION	100	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
7762	DIVERSICARE OF SEDGWICK	0.1%	49.0	C	KS	SEDGWICK	62	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
7763	Oakview Nursing & Rehablitation - Marion	0.1%	49.0	A	IA	Marion	40	THE VIEWS HOLDINGS LLC
7764	MEADOW WIND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	MASSILLON	99	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
7765	Inn at Quail Haven Village	0.1%	49.0	A	NC	Pinehurst	35	—
7766	SOUTH ORANGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	FL	ORLANDO	115	FL HC OPCO LLC
7767	Alma Nursing and Rehab	0.1%	49.0	B	AR	Alma	105	—
7768	MONTEREY CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	GROVE CITY	148	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
7769	MARSH'S EDGE	0.1%	49.0	C	GA	SAINT SIMONS ISLAND	20	MAXWELL GROUP INC
7770	DIBOLL NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	DIBOLL	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
7771	Good Samaritan - Ottumwa	0.1%	49.0	F	IA	Ottumwa	126	SANFORD
7772	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BLOOMINGTON CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	BLOOMINGTON	153	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7773	BELLA TERRACE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	COLUMBUS	96	—
7774	GOLDEN CREEK HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	NAVASOTA	0	MEMORIAL MEDICAL CENTER
7775	Clearstream Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.1%	49.0	B	MI	HASTINGS	98	RENEWAL HEALTHCARE LLC
7776	Compere NH Inc	0.1%	49.0	A	MS	JACKSON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
7777	ORCHARD VILLA	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	OREGON	136	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
7778	ELIOT CENTER FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	C	MA	NATICK	114	AMNH LLC
7779	WATERS OF HUNTINGTON SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	HUNTINGTON	85	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7780	ARBORETUM NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF WIN	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	WINNIE	0	—
7781	AUSTINBURG NSG AND REHAB CTR	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	AUSTINBURG	99	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
7782	HARMONY RIVER LIVING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	MN	HUTCHINSON	120	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7783	LAKE FOREST VILLAGE BY PUREHEALTH	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	DENTON	0	KCCJ1 HOLDINGS LLC
7784	North Gate Health Care Facility	0.1%	49.0	B	NY	North Tonawanda	200	VESTRA SPV1 LLC
7785	Denison Care Center	0.1%	49.0	A	IA	Denison	46	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
7786	AVIR AT JACKSONVILLE	0.1%	49.0	A	TX	JACKSONVILLE	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
7787	DOVE HEALTHCARE - SPOONER	0.1%	49.0	B	WI	SPOONER	50	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
7788	COMPLETE CARE AT FAIR LAWN EDGE	0.1%	49.0	C	NJ	PATERSON	180	—
7789	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING OAK GROVE	0.1%	49.0	B	MO	OAK GROVE	90	CHP SNFCO LLC
7790	MANRESA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	CA	WATSONVILLE	59	—
7791	STONEBRIDGE MARBLE HILL	0.1%	49.0	C	MO	MARBLE HILL	98	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
7792	Pinecrest Center for Rehabilitation and Healing	0.1%	49.0	B	FL	NORTH MIAMI	100	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
7793	St Jude's Health & Wellness Center	0.1%	49.0	B	LA	New Orleans	116	ST MARGARET S FOUNDATION
7794	SIENNA HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	ADENA	43	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
7795	South Pointe Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	49.0	F	OK	Oklahoma City	375	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
7796	LITTLE VILLAGE NRSG & RHB CTR	0.1%	49.0	F	IL	CHICAGO	106	—
7797	ELMWOOD HILLS HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	NJ	BLACKWOOD	300	—
7798	WEST PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	200	—
7799	ELIZABETHTOWN NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	C	PA	ELIZABETHTOWN	45	PA 3 HOLDCO
7800	Maple Springs Senior Living	0.1%	49.0	B	UT	North Logan	98	BRONSHIELD LLC

Showing 7,751–7,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.