Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,651–8,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8651	MAPLE SPRINGS OF WASILLA	0.1%	41.8	C	AK	WASILLA	67	BRONSHIELD LLC
8652	NORVIEW HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	41.8	B	VA	NORFOLK	60	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
8653	FIDDLERS GREEN MANOR REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	NY	SPRINGVILLE	82	—
8654	Landmark of Laurel Creek Rehabilitation and Nursin	0.1%	41.8	B	KY	Manchester	106	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
8655	ALBERTVILLE NURSING HOME	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	ALBERTVILLE	159	SCHMIDT WALLACE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
8656	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT OLD BRIDGE	0.1%	41.8	C	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	120	—
8657	FUTURE CARE CANTON HARBOR	0.1%	41.8	B	MD	BALTIMORE	160	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
8658	Bradford Manor Nursing and Rehab	0.1%	41.8	D	PA	BRADFORD	115	HCF INC
8659	St. Margaret's Daughters Home	0.1%	41.8	A	LA	NEW ORLEANS	112	—
8660	PRAIRIE MANOR NRSG & REHAB CTR	0.1%	41.8	B	IL	CHICAGO HEIGHTS	148	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
8661	ELLSWORTH HEALTH SERVICES	0.1%	41.8	A	WI	ELLSWORTH	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8662	EVERGREEN NURSING HOME	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	EVERGREEN	61	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
8663	Flagstone	0.1%	41.8	B	MN	EDEN PRAIRIE	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
8664	Brodie Ranch Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	D	TX	AUSTIN	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8665	BRANDON COURT	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	BRANDON	100	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
8666	THE GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY-KISSIMMEE VILLAGE	0.1%	41.8	F	FL	KISSIMMEE	161	SANFORD
8667	BELLEVIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	C	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	90	VHS MO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
8668	WARREN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	41.8	D	NY	QUEENSBURY	80	—
8669	ADARA LIVING	0.1%	41.8	C	CO	BROOMFIELD	210	LJ1115 LLC
8670	Croatan Ridge Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Newport	64	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
8671	Claremore Skilled Nursing and Therapy	0.1%	41.8	C	OK	Claremore	118	BRIDGES ESOP INC
8672	UNION CO HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, INC	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	NEW ALBANY	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
8673	Hamilton Nursing Home	0.1%	41.8	B	MI	Detroit	64	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8674	UNIONTOWN NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	UNIONTOWN	120	ISKEB 2024 TRUST
8675	Stratford Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	41.8	A	MI	Midland	100	—
8676	CEDARS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	F	CO	LAKEWOOD	130	SNH TRS INC
8677	Forrest Oakes Healthcare	0.1%	41.8	B	NC	Albemarle	60	SNF MGR LLC
8678	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF MONTGOMERY	0.1%	41.8	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	185	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
8679	CENTENNIAL HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
8680	MAPLEVIEW COUNTRY VILLA	0.1%	41.8	B	OH	CHARDON	100	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
8681	Lakeshore Rehabilitation Center LLC	0.1%	41.8	A	MN	WASECA	52	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
8682	Mill Creek Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	41.8	D	NC	Winston-Salem	66	COALITION GROUP LLC
8683	BLOUNTSTOWN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	FL	BLOUNTSTOWN	96	—
8684	WINDSOR HOUSE	0.1%	41.8	C	AL	HUNTSVILLE	117	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
8685	The Greens at Spruce Pines	0.1%	41.8	C	NC	Spruce Pine	127	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
8686	La Crescenta Healthcare Center	0.1%	41.8	A	CA	LA CRESCENTA	92	GRANCARE LLC
8687	LIFE CARE CENTER OF TULLAHOMA	0.1%	41.8	C	TN	TULLAHOMA	169	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8688	HILLVIEW SENIOR LIVING & REHAB	0.1%	41.8	A	IL	VIENNA	50	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
8689	Presbyterian Communities Of South Carolina- Clinto	0.1%	41.8	D	SC	Clinton	5	PRESBYTERIAN COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
8690	ROSS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	C	NY	BRENTWOOD	135	—
8691	ALTERCARE OF HARTVILLE CTR FOR	0.1%	41.8	C	OH	HARTVILLE	95	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
8692	Ridgecrest Retirement and Healthcare Community	0.1%	41.8	C	TX	Waco	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8693	BIG OAK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	D	NJ	PITTSGROVE	84	ABE AND RACHEL BAK FAMILY TRUST
8694	WILLIAMS BAY HEALTH SERVICES	0.1%	41.8	B	WI	WILLIAMS BAY	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
8695	VILLAGE CREST CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	41.8	B	CT	NEW MILFORD	95	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
8696	MAJESTIC CARE OF SOUTH BEND	0.1%	41.8	F	IN	SOUTH BEND	103	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8697	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - BRANDYWINE CARE CENTER	0.1%	41.8	B	IN	GREENFIELD	128	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8698	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF PETAL	0.1%	41.8	A	MS	PETAL	60	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
8699	OCEAN GROVE POST ACUTE	0.1%	41.8	C	DE	MILLSBORO	181	BUAH TRUST
8700	LA BELLA OF ALTON	0.1%	41.8	F	IL	ALTON	180	JENMAX HOLDINGS LLC

Showing 8,651–8,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.