Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

9,201–9,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
9201	Asheboro Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.1%	38.3	A	NC	Asheboro	100	—
9202	PACIFIC CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	PACIFIC	118	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9203	HEARTHSTONE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	38.3	D	IN	BLOOMINGTON	64	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
9204	AVENUE AT LYNDHURST	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	LYNDHURST	102	—
9205	RIVIERA PALMS REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	PALMETTO	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
9206	SERENITY BAY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	FL	NORTH MIAMI BEACH	143	—
9207	Deridder Retirement & Rehab Center	0.1%	38.3	B	LA	DERIDDER	90	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
9208	Coldspring Transitional Care Center	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Cold Spring	143	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
9209	MADISON MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	38.3	A	AL	MADISON	80	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
9210	BROOKDALE WESTLAKE HILLS	0.1%	38.3	C	TX	AUSTIN	0	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
9211	Signature Healthcare of Hartford Rehab & Wellness	0.1%	38.3	B	KY	Hartford	110	WHEATEN LLC
9212	LAURELS OF DEFIANCE THE	0.1%	38.3	B	OH	DEFIANCE	107	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
9213	Accura Healthcare of Stanton	0.1%	38.3	A	IA	Stanton	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9214	BOULDER CREEK POST ACUTE	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	POWAY	149	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
9215	ROSEWOOD REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	MO	INDEPENDENCE	300	AMA HOLDINGS LLC
9216	PUGET SOUND CARE	0.1%	38.3	A	WA	OLYMPIA	108	CORNERSTONE 18 OPERATIONS LLC
9217	CURRY VILLAGE HEALTH AND REHAB OF CASCADIA	0.1%	38.3	C	OR	BROOKINGS	59	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
9218	BENTLEY CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	NAPLES	84	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
9219	WHEATON VILLAGE NRSG & RHB CTR	0.1%	38.3	C	IL	WHEATON	123	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
9220	VALLEY VIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	IN	ELKHART	94	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
9221	CREEKSIDE VILLAGE	0.1%	38.3	B	TX	RICHWOOD	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
9222	Monument Healthcare Murray Creek	0.1%	38.3	C	UT	Millcreek	184	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
9223	NEW ALBANY CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	COLUMBUS	67	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
9224	AYER VALLEY REHAB AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	D	MA	AYER	123	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
9225	AURORA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	38.3	B	MS	COLUMBUS	120	ORAND LP
9226	South Kingstown Nurs. & Rehab Ctr	0.1%	38.3	B	RI	West Kingston	112	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
9227	Good Samaritan Society - St John's	0.1%	38.3	C	NE	Kearney	56	SANFORD
9228	WENTWORTH REHAB & HCC	0.1%	38.3	F	IL	CHICAGO	300	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
9229	Pine Acres Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	38.3	D	IA	West Des Moines	140	—
9230	Hillcrest Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	A	KY	Corbin	120	SEKY HOLDING CO
9231	TAYLOR SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	38.3	D	OH	GAHANNA	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
9232	Coast Care Convalescent Center	0.1%	38.3	B	CA	BALDWIN PARK	48	—
9233	ROWAN COMMUNITY, INC	0.1%	38.3	A	CO	DENVER	65	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
9234	STONE MOUNTAIN RUN OF JOURNEY LLC	0.1%	38.3	B	GA	STONE MOUNTAIN	149	AJOJ HOLDINGS LLC
9235	ST JAMES LIVING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	SAINT JAMES	90	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
9236	SEAL ROCK HEALTHCARE	0.1%	38.3	A	ME	SACO	105	FIRST ATLANTIC HEALTHCARE INC
9237	ADIRA AT RIVERSIDE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	38.3	B	NY	YONKERS	120	—
9238	MANTEY HEIGHTS REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	CO	GRAND JUNCTION	88	SNH TRS INC
9239	RULEME CENTER	0.1%	38.3	A	FL	EUSTIS	138	LCE PARTNERS LLC
9240	ELAN SKILLED NURSING AND REHAB, A JEWISH SENIOR LI	0.1%	38.3	A	PA	SCRANTON	145	AFFINITY HEALTH SERVICES
9241	THE BLOSSOMS AT WEST DIXON REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	127	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
9242	White Oak Manor - Spartanburg	0.1%	38.3	A	SC	Spartanburg	60	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
9243	ASTORIA PLACE OF SILVERTON	0.1%	38.3	F	OH	CINCINNATI	98	—
9244	TATTNALL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	GA	REIDSVILLE	92	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
9245	BELLTOWER HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	38.3	B	IN	GRANGER	96	MAJOR HOSPITAL
9246	LOFT REHAB & NURSING OF CANTON	0.1%	38.3	F	IL	CANTON	90	—
9247	HALL OF FAME REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	38.3	C	OH	CANTON	69	DHM OH THREE HOLDINGS LLC
9248	Regency Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	38.3	C	KY	Louisvile	110	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
9249	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WAYNESVILLE	0.1%	38.3	D	MO	WAYNESVILLE	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
9250	The Emeralds at St Paul LLC	0.1%	38.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	100	—

Showing 9,201–9,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.