Composite
81.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 89.9 | 77.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.75 | in index |
| staffing risk | 87.3 | 87.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 16.79 | in index |
| billing conduct | 53.3 | 40.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.30 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 29.5 | 20.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.81 | in index |
| chow risk | 41.6 | 39.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.80 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.8 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 54.7 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 77.3 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 6.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 20.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 87.3 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 58.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 38.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 78.2 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 20.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 20.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 87.3 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 87.3 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.63 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.62 | +0.25 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.41 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.62 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.11 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.82 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 71.8 | 2.62 | 0.31 | 0.77 | 1.54 | 2.11 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 72.4 | 2.94 | 0.30 | 0.81 | 1.83 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 72.6 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 0.83 | 2.14 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 74.0 | 3.10 | 0.29 | 0.78 | 2.04 | 2.81 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 70.5 | 3.03 | 0.31 | 0.85 | 1.87 | 2.75 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 68.1 | 3.05 | 0.30 | 0.95 | 1.80 | 2.62 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 68.4 | 3.04 | 0.26 | 1.02 | 1.76 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 65.9 | 2.20 | 0.18 | 0.72 | 1.30 | 2.03 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 65.7 | 3.19 | 0.31 | 1.01 | 1.88 | 2.60 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 67.1 | 3.00 | 0.28 | 0.89 | 1.82 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 65.6 | 2.96 | 0.33 | 0.91 | 1.72 | 2.63 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 58.3 | 3.21 | 0.30 | 1.21 | 1.70 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 53.6 | 3.20 | 0.34 | 1.23 | 1.63 | 2.46 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 52.6 | 3.22 | 0.27 | 1.09 | 1.86 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2026-04-03 |
| 2026-02-24 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-04-03 |
| 2026-02-24 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2026-04-03 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | F | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | E | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | F | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-10-11 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-11-19 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | D | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-03-16 |
| 2023-01-30 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-03-16 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2019-07-17 |
| 2019-06-07 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2019-07-17 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADAIR COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-11-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BELL, AURORA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BESLER, WENDY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2008-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARDSON, JAMES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2012-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AURORA BELL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES RICHARDSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2012-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WENDY BESLER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2008-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 0 | $470 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | fmr | 0 | $706 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 1 | $608 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | fmr | 1 | $708 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 2 | $797 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | fmr | 2 | $888 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,020 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | fmr | 3 | $1,235 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,403 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | fmr | 4 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,355 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29001 | acs median gross | $772 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29001 | acs recent mover gross | $854 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 0 | $475 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 1 | $612 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 2 | $800 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,405 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,355 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63501 | acs median gross | $777 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63501 | acs recent mover gross | $854 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | safmr | 0 | $710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | safmr | 1 | $710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $979 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $801 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | safmr | 2 | $890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | safmr | 3 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63501 | safmr | 4 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |