12651 VILLAGE CIRCLE DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS, MO 63127 · CCN 265136 · chain FV SERVICES INC
Composite
24.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
144
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 24.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.40
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.62
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.31
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
133.7
3.40
0.36
0.95
2.09
3.62
0.0%
2025Q3
92
135.2
3.24
0.39
0.84
2.01
3.32
0.0%
2025Q2
91
134.5
3.47
0.41
0.80
2.26
3.56
0.0%
2025Q1
90
132.9
3.39
0.40
0.86
2.13
3.63
0.0%
2024Q4
92
132.9
3.03
0.32
0.77
1.94
3.16
0.5%
2024Q3
92
133.0
3.24
0.32
0.78
2.14
3.27
0.0%
2024Q2
91
133.8
3.23
0.34
0.81
2.08
3.25
0.0%
2024Q1
91
131.6
3.23
0.36
0.84
2.04
3.37
5.6%
2023Q4
92
134.9
3.33
0.27
0.92
2.13
3.50
8.2%
2023Q3
92
135.1
3.05
0.28
0.86
1.90
3.13
5.8%
2023Q2
91
136.0
3.17
0.31
0.88
1.97
3.31
7.5%
2023Q1
90
137.2
2.95
0.35
0.77
1.83
3.19
1.1%
2022Q4
92
133.3
2.65
0.32
0.79
1.53
2.90
1.7%
2022Q3
92
133.6
3.33
0.33
1.04
1.97
3.38
6.2%
2022Q2
91
133.6
3.22
0.30
1.02
1.90
3.12
2.3%
2022Q1
90
129.8
3.12
0.31
1.02
1.79
3.26
1.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2025-02-28
2025-01-28
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-14
2024-04-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-03-18
2024-02-01
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-02-23
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-11-12
2023-09-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-11-12
2019-08-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2019-10-04
2019-08-28
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2019-10-04
2019-08-28
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-10-04
2019-08-28
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2019-10-04
2019-08-28
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2019-10-04
2019-08-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-10-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FV SERVICES, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOLSTAD, CINDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
BROSCH, SIRISHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
BROSCH, SIRISHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-04
current
pecos_ownership
FV SERVICES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
KLINGER, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIVERAR, BOBBIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-30
current
pecos_ownership
LIVERAR, BOBBIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
UTLEY, KEITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
UTLEY, KEITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALSH, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-08-09
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMANN, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
CINDY BOLSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES WALSH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2016-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY KLINGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2011-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH UTLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH UTLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-09-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE LIVERAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE LIVERAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN ZIMMERMANN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA WRIGHT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SIRISHA BROSCH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SIRISHA BROSCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$708,698
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-06-30
$899,674
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-06-30
$928,394
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-06-30
$781,923
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$1,542,012
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29189
acs median gross
0
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
0
$955
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
1
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
1
$995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
2
$1,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
2
$1,218
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
3
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
3
$1,568
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
4
$1,742
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
4
$1,812
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
5
$1,850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
acs median gross
$1,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
acs recent mover gross
$1,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63127
acs median gross
1
$1,720
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63127
acs median gross
2
$1,828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63127
acs median gross
3
$855
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63127
acs median gross
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63127
payment standard 110
0
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 90
0
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
safmr
0
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 110
2
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 90
2
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
safmr
2
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 110
4
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
payment standard 90
4
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63127
safmr
4
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.