Reads as: riskier than 32.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
LINCOLN JUDY
55 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.6 vs natl
ERGO MIDWEST INC
57 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.6 vs natl
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
57 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.5 vs natl
LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
LINCOLN JAMES
56 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
ERGO MIDWEST INC
38 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.16
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.05
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.20
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
63.6
2.16
0.46
0.25
1.45
2.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
63.9
2.09
0.42
0.25
1.42
2.01
0.0%
2025Q2
91
70.4
1.75
0.33
0.22
1.20
1.70
0.0%
2025Q1
90
74.5
1.41
0.24
0.23
0.93
1.32
0.0%
2024Q4
92
67.7
1.70
0.25
0.27
1.18
1.63
0.1%
2024Q3
92
62.2
2.11
0.27
0.34
1.50
2.05
0.0%
2024Q2
91
63.2
2.12
0.21
0.37
1.54
2.06
0.0%
2024Q1
91
59.8
2.23
0.12
0.43
1.68
2.16
0.0%
2023Q4
92
63.4
2.16
0.15
0.43
1.58
2.07
0.0%
2023Q3
92
62.7
2.26
0.24
0.40
1.63
2.18
0.0%
2023Q2
91
62.9
2.20
0.23
0.41
1.56
2.08
0.0%
2023Q1
90
63.7
2.37
0.24
0.41
1.72
2.19
0.0%
2022Q4
92
63.9
2.44
0.25
0.41
1.78
2.21
0.0%
2022Q3
92
65.1
2.01
0.23
0.41
1.37
1.79
0.0%
2022Q2
91
62.3
1.79
0.23
0.46
1.11
1.66
0.2%
2022Q1
90
63.7
1.83
0.21
0.40
1.21
1.71
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 8F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-12
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-11-28
2025-07-25
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-01
2025-07-25
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-09-01
2024-05-23
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-06-28
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-06-28
2024-05-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-28
2022-12-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-01-27
2022-12-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-01-27
2022-12-16
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
D
2023-01-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LINCOLN, JAMES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
LINCOLN, JUDY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, KIMBERLY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
KIMBERLY THOMAS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2003-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAMES LINCOLN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDY LINCOLN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$837,879
—
—
$174,126
$108,974
13
propco
2023-12-31
$946,337
—
—
$215,979
$148,038
13
propco
2022-12-31
$963,275
—
—
$218,212
$167,469
13
propco
2021-12-31
$950,894
—
—
$199,627
$187,470
12
propco
2020-12-31
$1,068,100
—
—
$213,107
$258,665
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29187
acs median gross
0
$720
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
fmr
0
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29187
acs median gross
1
$582
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
fmr
1
$689
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29187
acs median gross
2
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
fmr
2
$904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29187
acs median gross
3
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
fmr
3
$1,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29187
acs median gross
4
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
fmr
4
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29187
acs median gross
$794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29187
acs recent mover gross
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
0
$549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
1
$544
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
2
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
3
$878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
4
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs median gross
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63601
acs recent mover gross
$952
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63601
payment standard 110
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 90
0
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
safmr
0
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 110
1
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 90
1
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
safmr
1
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 110
2
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 90
2
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
safmr
2
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 110
3
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 90
3
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
safmr
3
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 110
4
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
payment standard 90
4
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63601
safmr
4
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.