Composite
76.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 87.0 | 73.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.08 | in index |
| billing conduct | 83.4 | 55.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.25 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 44.0 | 32.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.15 | in index |
| chow risk | 74.8 | 46.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.63 | in index |
| staffing risk | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 0.69 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 55.1 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 28.5 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 65.3 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 73.9 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 32.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 3.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 96.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 76.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.0 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.6 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 3.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 3.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.07 | -0.40 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.07 | -0.78 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.51 | +0.21 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.07 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.71 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.03 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.09 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 44.6 | 5.07 | 0.71 | 1.26 | 3.10 | 5.03 | 3.6% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 44.3 | 5.11 | 0.68 | 1.33 | 3.09 | 4.99 | 3.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 44.2 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 1.37 | 2.78 | 4.70 | 6.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 45.0 | 4.63 | 0.42 | 1.34 | 2.88 | 4.50 | 9.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 42.7 | 4.56 | 0.43 | 1.46 | 2.67 | 4.51 | 3.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 43.5 | 4.71 | 0.35 | 1.47 | 2.89 | 4.67 | 2.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 44.8 | 4.48 | 0.34 | 1.43 | 2.71 | 4.39 | 2.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 43.8 | 4.86 | 0.32 | 1.43 | 3.11 | 4.90 | 11.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 42.1 | 5.22 | 0.40 | 1.57 | 3.25 | 5.28 | 10.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 42.6 | 5.27 | 0.61 | 1.34 | 3.31 | 4.97 | 21.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 43.0 | 4.88 | 0.52 | 1.39 | 2.97 | 4.50 | 19.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 43.7 | 4.45 | 0.45 | 1.24 | 2.75 | 4.52 | 17.8% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 44.8 | 4.53 | 0.41 | 1.38 | 2.74 | 4.50 | 23.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 45.2 | 4.85 | 0.28 | 1.67 | 2.90 | 4.67 | 14.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 49.3 | 4.99 | 0.28 | 1.72 | 2.99 | 4.94 | 25.2% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-04-01 |
| 2026-03-03 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | G | 2026-04-01 |
| 2025-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | — |
| 2025-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | G | 2025-09-15 |
| 2025-07-11 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-08-08 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2025-01-27 |
| 2024-01-19 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-03-15 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-03-23 | Health | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2020-06-01 |
| 2020-02-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2020-06-01 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCCRITE, JUDITH | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2011-03-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCRITE, PATRICK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2011-03-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCRITE, CASSIDY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2011-03-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCCRITE, PATRICK | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-03-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PATRICK MCCRITE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2011-03-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUDITH MCCRITE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2011-03-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PATRICK MCCRITE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2011-03-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CASSIDY MCCRITE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 30% | 2011-03-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 0 | $866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | fmr | 0 | $1,095 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 1 | $994 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | fmr | 1 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,204 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | fmr | 2 | $1,358 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,593 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | fmr | 3 | $1,769 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,033 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | fmr | 4 | $2,103 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,081 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29047 | acs median gross | $1,243 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29047 | acs recent mover gross | $1,307 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | 0 | $883 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,010 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,348 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,386 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,721 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64116 | acs median gross | $1,225 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64116 | acs recent mover gross | $1,449 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | safmr | 0 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,265 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | safmr | 1 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,441 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | safmr | 2 | $1,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,539 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | safmr | 3 | $1,710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,827 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64116 | safmr | 4 | $2,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |