Composite
75.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 92.5 | 92.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 17.79 | in index |
| billing conduct | 53.8 | 41.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.42 | in index |
| financial risk | 51.1 | 46.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.79 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 42.8 | 31.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.88 | in index |
| chow risk | 54.4 | 58.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.28 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +21.2 vs natl | WOLF JACQUES | 13 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +21.1 vs natl | AMA HOLDINGS LLC | 13 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +21.1 vs natl | DEF HOLDINGS LLC | 13 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +21.1 vs natl | MARX ASHER | 13 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 41.0 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.2 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 93.2 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.2 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 31.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 92.5 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 97.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 77.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 41.7 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 51.6 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 92.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 92.5 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.99 | -1.55 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.38 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.71 | +0.17 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 13.00 | +0.14 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 13.00 | -0.98 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.77 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.71 | -0.37 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.44 | +0.32 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.99 | -0.25 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.44 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.27 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.51 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 55.5 | 2.44 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 1.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 57.8 | 2.51 | 0.20 | 0.77 | 1.54 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 59.9 | 2.80 | 0.16 | 0.82 | 1.82 | 2.44 | 9.1% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 60.5 | 2.68 | 0.23 | 0.75 | 1.71 | 2.46 | 22.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 59.3 | 2.82 | 0.39 | 0.69 | 1.73 | 2.62 | 26.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 57.8 | 2.67 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 1.77 | 2.63 | 26.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 56.5 | 2.69 | 0.34 | 0.65 | 1.70 | 2.60 | 16.4% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 60.0 | 2.59 | 0.37 | 0.78 | 1.44 | 2.48 | 4.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 55.8 | 2.47 | 0.23 | 0.75 | 1.49 | 2.04 | 2.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 53.6 | 2.94 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 1.80 | 2.51 | 6.6% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 53.8 | 2.99 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 1.83 | 2.76 | 17.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 51.8 | 2.90 | 0.38 | 0.82 | 1.70 | 2.65 | 20.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 54.6 | 2.61 | 0.18 | 0.82 | 1.60 | 2.57 | 30.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 59.0 | 2.30 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 1.43 | 2.25 | 26.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 60.1 | 2.09 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 1.23 | 2.01 | 28.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 56.6 | 1.55 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.97 | 1.59 | 6.3% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0691 | Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-03-25 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-11-19 |
| 2025-04-29 | Health · complaint | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | E | 2025-04-21 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-06-04 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-06-04 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2022-09-15 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-09-04 |
| 2022-08-05 | Health | F0906 | Provide enough power supply for lighting all entrances and exits; equipment for fire detection and alarm systems, and extinguishers. | F | 2022-09-15 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUTLER HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AMA HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUTLER MANAGER LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUTLER PARTNERS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEF HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EXCEL NTAD LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEFFERT, JOYCE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-08-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARX, ASHER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MO BUTLER LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TREITEL, NASSAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WOLF, JACQUES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ASHER MARX | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 43% | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACQUES WOLF | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 43% | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NASSAN TREITEL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOYCE LEFFERT | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-08-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-01 | — | BUTLER OPERATOR LLC | BREEZY OPERATIONS LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29013 | fmr | 0 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29013 | acs median gross | 1 | $515 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29013 | fmr | 1 | $706 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29013 | acs median gross | 2 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29013 | fmr | 2 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29013 | acs median gross | 3 | $960 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29013 | fmr | 3 | $1,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29013 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,141 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29013 | fmr | 4 | $1,555 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29013 | acs median gross | $786 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29013 | acs recent mover gross | $549 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64730 | acs median gross | 1 | $526 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64730 | acs median gross | 2 | $914 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64730 | acs median gross | 3 | $984 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64730 | acs median gross | $894 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | safmr | 0 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $748 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $612 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | safmr | 1 | $680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $979 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $801 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | safmr | 2 | $890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,062 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | safmr | 3 | $1,180 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64730 | safmr | 4 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |