Composite
98.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 85.0 | 71.8 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 25.50 | in index |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | 99.7 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 24.93 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 74.1 | 70.1 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 22.23 | in index |
| chow risk | 41.5 | 39.8 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 6.23 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +22.6 vs natl | RICHARD J DESTEFANE REVOCABLE LIVING TRUST | 23 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +20.4 vs natl | RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC | 32 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 59% fined | DESTEFANE RICHARD | 32 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 59% fined | RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC | 32 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 56% fined | RICHARD J DESTEFANE REVOCABLE LIVING TRUST | 23 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 54.6 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 71.8 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 70.1 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 58.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 38.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.1 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.5 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 69.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 69.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.69 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.30 | +0.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.43 | +0.33 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.30 | +0.81 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.43 | -0.80 | |
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.79 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.36 | +0.14 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 1.30 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.53 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 1.20 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 59.0 | 1.30 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 1.53 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 58.9 | 0.73 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.70 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 57.1 | 0.94 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 54.1 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.84 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 57.4 | 0.93 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 58.0 | 1.13 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.66 | 0.99 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 57.5 | 1.05 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 58.1 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 52.5 | 1.38 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 1.04 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 46.5 | 2.45 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 1.78 | 2.20 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 48.4 | 2.13 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 1.78 | 2.09 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 53.8 | 1.96 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 56.0 | 1.44 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 1.32 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 56.3 | 1.71 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 1.26 | 1.62 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 53.1 | 1.88 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 1.31 | 1.77 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 56.3 | 1.61 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.98 | 1.61 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-10 | Fine | $37,733 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0576 | Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-02-06 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-12-01 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | C | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | E | 2023-12-02 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-12-02 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-12-02 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-10-20 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-08-10 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-08-10 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-08-10 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | C | 2022-11-08 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | C | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | D | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | C | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2022-12-01 |
| 2022-10-21 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2022-12-01 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICHARD J DESTEFANE REVOCABLE LIVING TRUST | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DESTEFANE, RICHARD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2010-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KAUS, BRANDY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-08-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-04-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BKY PRP OF ST E | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BRANDY KAUS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2018-08-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARD DESTEFANE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2010-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29131 | acs median gross | 0 | $660 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29131 | fmr | 0 | $667 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29131 | acs median gross | 1 | $441 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29131 | fmr | 1 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29131 | acs median gross | 2 | $773 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29131 | fmr | 2 | $898 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29131 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29131 | fmr | 3 | $1,088 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29131 | acs median gross | 4 | $788 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29131 | fmr | 4 | $1,416 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29131 | acs median gross | $763 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29131 | acs recent mover gross | $1,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $748 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $612 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | safmr | 0 | $680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | safmr | 2 | $910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | safmr | 3 | $1,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65075 | safmr | 4 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |