Composite
59.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 65.3 | 58.0 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 43.53 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 8.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 58.0 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| regulatory risk | 57.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 57.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.69 | +0.27 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.69 | +0.64 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.39 | +0.16 |
| 2025Q3 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 1.69 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.41 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 1.80 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 73.6 | 1.69 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 1.19 | 1.41 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 74.3 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 1.18 | 1.40 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 71.4 | 1.56 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 70.0 | 1.50 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 1.05 | 1.30 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 70.4 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.86 | 1.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 75.0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.89 | 1.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 75.6 | 1.35 | 0.03 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 1.21 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 75.5 | 1.47 | 0.09 | 0.55 | 0.83 | 1.23 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 77.6 | 1.40 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.81 | 1.12 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 79.5 | 1.50 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.99 | 1.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 73.6 | 1.56 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 1.06 | 1.33 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 64.4 | 1.66 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 1.05 | 1.40 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 56.1 | 1.75 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 1.10 | 1.53 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 59.1 | 1.63 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2023-11-06 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-10-17 | Fine | $13,635 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-11 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-05 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-28 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-21 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-14 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-07 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-07-17 | Fine | $13,635 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-06-26 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-06-20 | Fine | $4,545 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-03-14 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2026-01-17 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | E | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-11-27 |
| 2025-10-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-11-27 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2024-10-05 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | E | 2024-10-05 |
| 2023-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-06-13 |
| 2023-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-08-09 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0685 | Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2022-12-31 |
| 2022-11-17 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | F | 2022-12-31 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 0 | $745 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | fmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 1 | $683 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | fmr | 1 | $815 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 2 | $871 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | fmr | 2 | $965 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,140 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | fmr | 3 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,548 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | fmr | 4 | $1,619 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,157 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29101 | acs median gross | $932 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29101 | acs recent mover gross | $973 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 0 | $705 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 1 | $674 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 2 | $868 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,115 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,627 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,201 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64093 | acs median gross | $899 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64093 | acs recent mover gross | $960 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $729 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | safmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | safmr | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | safmr | 2 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | safmr | 3 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64093 | safmr | 4 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |