Composite
56.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 85.2 | 72.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.66 | in index |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | 95.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 18.42 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | 26.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.70 | in index |
| chow risk | 34.2 | 32.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.95 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 40.6 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 72.0 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 26.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 68.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 48.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 65.2 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.3 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 26.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 26.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 6.83 | -1.18 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.24 | +0.16 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.24 | +0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 6.83 | -0.19 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.79 | +0.16 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.24 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.98 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.34 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 73.7 | 2.24 | 0.14 | 0.85 | 1.25 | 1.98 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 66.7 | 2.40 | 0.22 | 0.80 | 1.37 | 2.17 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 64.9 | 2.44 | 0.15 | 0.78 | 1.50 | 2.04 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 68.3 | 2.29 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 1.51 | 1.97 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.4 | 2.44 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 1.57 | 2.02 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 69.3 | 2.37 | 0.17 | 0.71 | 1.48 | 1.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 73.5 | 2.10 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 1.25 | 1.68 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 74.2 | 1.96 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 1.19 | 1.60 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 73.5 | 2.01 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 1.23 | 1.63 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 73.3 | 1.98 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1.31 | 1.78 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 68.9 | 2.03 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 1.30 | 1.59 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 66.4 | 2.24 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 1.54 | 1.88 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 73.8 | 2.00 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 1.45 | 1.74 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 74.7 | 2.07 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 1.36 | 1.91 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 67.7 | 2.19 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 1.35 | 1.95 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 70.2 | 2.11 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 1.36 | 2.02 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | Health · complaint | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-04-02 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-04-03 |
| 2025-01-23 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-02-10 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-10-18 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | E | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | C | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | C | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-08-23 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-08-22 |
| 2024-07-18 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | 2024-08-23 |
| 2024-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2024-03-08 |
| 2024-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-03-08 |
| 2024-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-03-08 |
| 2023-11-09 | Health · complaint | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2023-12-08 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2023-05-04 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | C | 2023-05-04 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-05-17 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2023-05-17 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-05-11 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-05-11 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-05-05 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2023-05-17 |
| 2023-04-10 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2023-05-17 |
| 2021-02-04 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2021-03-21 |
| 2021-02-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2021-03-21 |
| 2021-02-04 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2021-03-21 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RILEY, CHARLES | LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROLLA GRAND LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPENCE, GREGORY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SZERZINSKI, STEVEN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-06-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SZERZINSKI, STEVEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GREGORY SPENCE | LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | 60% | 2019-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHARLES RILEY | LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | 40% | 2019-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN SZERZINSKI | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-06-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN SZERZINSKI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-12-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-01 | — | ROLLA GRAND LLC | ROLLA MANOR INC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 0 | $598 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | fmr | 0 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 1 | $623 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | fmr | 1 | $742 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 2 | $814 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | fmr | 2 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 3 | $998 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | fmr | 3 | $1,231 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,268 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | fmr | 4 | $1,235 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,659 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29161 | acs median gross | $798 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29161 | acs recent mover gross | $835 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 0 | $601 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 1 | $639 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 2 | $798 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,055 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,362 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65401 | acs median gross | $796 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65401 | acs recent mover gross | $803 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $803 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $657 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | safmr | 0 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | safmr | 1 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | safmr | 2 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | safmr | 3 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65401 | safmr | 4 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |