Composite
5.3 / 100 percentile
Screener / 505536
A
THREE RIVERS CARE
snfWA
1305 ALEXANDER ST, CENTRALIA, WA 98531 · CCN 505536 · chain KH7 HH CDW
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
83
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 5.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing3Penalties0Deficiencies9Licensure0Ownership13Related party0Transactions1Comps12Market rent36
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 44.7 | 44.8 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 15.96 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 18.6 | 12.1 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 7.97 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.5 | 15.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 0.11 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 15.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 12.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 44.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 12.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 12.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 44.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 44.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
12.1
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.19 | -1.73 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.56 | +0.40 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.38 | -0.07 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
44.6
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.56 | +0.80 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.19 | -0.28 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
3| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.38 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.22 | 3.51 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.44 | 3.79 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 46.3 | 3.38 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 2.15 | 3.22 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 32.2 | 3.32 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 1.99 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 26.4 | 3.80 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 2.26 | 3.26 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9D × 9
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2025-09-02 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KH7 HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 1305 ALEXANDER PROPCO, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOGUE, ASHLEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2014-03-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KH7 HH CDW | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KH7 OPS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KH7 PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCDANIEL, PAULINE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-04-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OSCHEROWITZ, RAPHAEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WOLMARK, CHAIM | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHAIM WOLMARK | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RAPHAEL OSCHEROWITZ | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-05-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ASHLEY HOGUE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2014-03-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PAULINE MCDANIEL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-04-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
1| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-21 | — | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC | RIVERSIDE NURSING - CENTRALIA LLC | chow |
Comparable trades — WA snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Bremerton Trails Post Acute | — | — | — | 125 | RINCON BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Othello Post Acute | — | — | — | 39 | DOHENY BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Edmonds Post Acute | — | — | — | 128 | SALT CREEK BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | AURORA VALLEY CARE | — | — | — | 124 | AURORA VALLEY CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | THREE RIVERS CAREthis facility | — | — | — | 83 | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | FIR LANE CARE | — | — | — | 135 | FIR LANE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE | — | — | — | 100 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MARIANWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 117 | LUNA VEGA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | WOODARD CREEK HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 152 | WOODARD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-03-12 | Avalon Healthcare - Tacoma | — | — | — | 81 | AVALON HEALTHCARE-TACOMA LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH HILL REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | LAST EMPIRE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PINE RIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | PINE RIDGE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 0 | $794 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | fmr | 0 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 1 | $841 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | fmr | 1 | $975 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,160 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | fmr | 2 | $1,279 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,301 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | fmr | 3 | $1,688 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,678 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | fmr | 4 | $1,832 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,195 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53041 | acs median gross | $1,097 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 53041 | acs recent mover gross | $1,541 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 0 | $912 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 1 | $898 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,164 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,470 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,778 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,412 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98531 | acs median gross | $1,130 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98531 | acs recent mover gross | $1,658 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | safmr | 0 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | safmr | 1 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,494 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | safmr | 2 | $1,660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,508 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,052 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | safmr | 3 | $2,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,069 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,511 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98531 | safmr | 4 | $2,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.