Composite
77.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 75.9 | 63.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.52 | in index |
| billing conduct | 66.3 | 46.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.30 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 57.6 | 48.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 87.7 | 68.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 10.12 | in index |
| staffing risk | 15.4 | 15.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.96 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 46.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 82.1 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 63.6 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 48.0 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 15.5 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 83.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.5 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.2 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 47.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 47.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 15.5 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 15.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.30 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.08 | -0.21 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.08 | -0.36 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.08 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.78 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.78 | 3.51 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.20 | 3.79 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 108.1 | 4.08 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 2.75 | 3.78 | 8.4% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 107.9 | 4.06 | 0.77 | 0.57 | 2.72 | 3.73 | 6.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 109.7 | 4.07 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 2.71 | 3.73 | 8.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 108.3 | 4.03 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 2.68 | 3.77 | 7.2% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 109.5 | 4.02 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 2.65 | 3.72 | 7.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 118.4 | 3.80 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 2.58 | 3.56 | 9.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 115.7 | 3.83 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 2.60 | 3.49 | 6.9% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 112.5 | 3.83 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 3.54 | 6.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 112.2 | 3.79 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 2.55 | 3.38 | 2.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 115.2 | 3.59 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 114.3 | 3.49 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 2.32 | 3.13 | 3.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 110.1 | 3.60 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 2.36 | 3.37 | 0.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 109.9 | 3.53 | 0.79 | 0.40 | 2.34 | 3.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 111.3 | 3.31 | 0.79 | 0.35 | 2.17 | 3.05 | 1.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 109.2 | 3.40 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 2.12 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 101.4 | 3.05 | 0.85 | 0.41 | 1.79 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-05-15 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2026-03-20 |
| 2026-02-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-03-20 |
| 2025-05-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-06-11 |
| 2025-04-14 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0773 | Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results. | D | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-12-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-01-24 |
| 2024-07-08 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-08-16 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health · complaint | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-12-11 |
| 2023-10-27 | Health · complaint | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-12-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOERNER, EDWARD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-09-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LADENBURG, LYNETTE | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2016-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OCONER, ELLEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHARMAN, DONALD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHARMAN, DONALD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VERNON-COLE, CHRISTOPHER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2017-04-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Bremerton Trails Post Acute | — | — | — | 125 | RINCON BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Othello Post Acute | — | — | — | 39 | DOHENY BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Edmonds Post Acute | — | — | — | 128 | SALT CREEK BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | AURORA VALLEY CARE | — | — | — | 124 | AURORA VALLEY CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | THREE RIVERS CARE | — | — | — | 83 | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | FIR LANE CARE | — | — | — | 135 | FIR LANE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE | — | — | — | 100 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MARIANWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 117 | LUNA VEGA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | WOODARD CREEK HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 152 | WOODARD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-03-12 | Avalon Healthcare - Tacoma | — | — | — | 81 | AVALON HEALTHCARE-TACOMA LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH HILL REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | LAST EMPIRE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PINE RIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | PINE RIDGE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,379 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | fmr | 0 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,448 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | fmr | 1 | $1,548 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | fmr | 2 | $2,031 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,217 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | fmr | 3 | $2,676 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,360 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | fmr | 4 | $2,941 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,331 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53035 | acs median gross | $1,822 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 53035 | acs recent mover gross | $2,007 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98370 | acs median gross | 1 | $635 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98370 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,816 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98370 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,610 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98370 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,988 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98370 | acs median gross | $1,852 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98370 | acs recent mover gross | $2,976 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,628 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | safmr | 0 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,793 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,467 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | safmr | 1 | $1,630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,354 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,926 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | safmr | 2 | $2,140 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,102 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,538 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | safmr | 3 | $2,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,410 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98370 | safmr | 4 | $3,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |