Reads as: riskier than 35.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
AEGIS THERAPIES INC
32 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.85
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.35
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.05
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.4
2.85
0.41
0.38
2.06
2.35
0.1%
2025Q3
92
46.8
2.67
0.42
0.31
1.94
2.13
0.9%
2025Q2
91
47.7
2.93
0.45
0.37
2.11
2.43
2.3%
2025Q1
90
47.1
3.05
0.55
0.52
1.97
2.53
2.5%
2024Q4
92
52.3
3.41
0.59
0.52
2.30
2.81
0.7%
2024Q3
92
53.9
2.90
0.48
0.46
1.96
2.25
2.3%
2024Q2
91
56.4
2.65
0.47
0.40
1.78
2.02
0.3%
2024Q1
91
50.0
2.99
0.67
0.25
2.08
2.21
2.4%
2023Q4
92
48.7
3.12
0.63
0.34
2.15
2.24
3.4%
2023Q3
92
48.9
2.98
0.64
0.35
2.00
2.19
1.9%
2023Q2
91
47.4
2.91
0.47
0.44
2.00
2.04
2.8%
2023Q1
90
45.2
2.87
0.42
0.58
1.87
2.26
6.1%
2022Q4
92
43.0
2.72
0.46
0.46
1.80
2.23
3.6%
2022Q3
92
41.9
3.06
0.43
0.52
2.10
2.56
1.7%
2022Q2
91
40.7
3.47
0.52
0.41
2.55
3.02
1.2%
2022Q1
90
40.1
2.58
0.63
0.40
1.55
1.97
0.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 8F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-02-25
2026-01-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-25
2025-02-14
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2025-03-21
2024-04-11
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2024-05-11
2024-04-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-11
2023-10-04
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2023-09-07
2022-06-15
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2022-06-23
2022-06-15
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-15
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-06-30
2022-06-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-07-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
53
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNES, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
BARTON, SUSAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
BICKFORD, TAMMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
BOWER, JACOB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
BURTON, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
CAVERO, FERNANDO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-25
current
pecos_ownership
CROUCH, RONNIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
CROUCH, RONNIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
DBA DIETARY CONSULTANTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1999-10-18
current
pecos_ownership
FAUCETT, KAITLIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
GAROUTTE, HELEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
HENDRIX, ASHLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-10-02
current
pecos_ownership
HERNDON, DEBI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
HOOD, PHILLIP
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
JUSTUS, JOEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
PAUDA, DANIELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
PAUDA, DANIELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
PORTILLO, ERIKA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
RIBBING, JERRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
RICE, TIM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-10-16
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, WADE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TIPPETT, GARY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
WEBB, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
WEBB, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, WANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
WIESE, PAUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY HENDRIX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-10-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES BURTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIELLE PAUDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIELLE PAUDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBI HERNDON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIKA PORTILLO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FERNANDO CAVERO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY TIPPETT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HELEN GAROUTTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB BOWER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-10-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRY RIBBING
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL JUSTUS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAITLIN FAUCETT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA WEBB
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA WEBB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL WIESE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-11-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP HOOD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONNIE CROUCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONNIE CROUCH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2009-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT BARNES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN BARTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMMY BICKFORD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIM RICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-10-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WADE ROGERS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA WEST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29009
fmr
0
$672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29009
acs median gross
1
$554
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29009
acs median gross
2
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29009
acs median gross
3
$1,005
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
fmr
3
$1,235
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29009
acs median gross
4
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
fmr
4
$1,311
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29009
acs median gross
5
$778
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
acs median gross
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29009
acs recent mover gross
$804
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs median gross
1
$443
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs median gross
2
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs median gross
3
$1,056
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs median gross
4
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs median gross
$910
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65708
acs recent mover gross
$1,180
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65708
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 110
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 90
1
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
safmr
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 110
2
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 90
2
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
safmr
2
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 110
3
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 90
3
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
safmr
3
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65708
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.