Reads as: riskier than 38.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.58
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.44
3.17
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.63
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
90.2
3.58
0.46
1.01
2.12
3.44
13.4%
2025Q3
92
91.4
3.70
0.49
1.00
2.21
3.52
16.8%
2025Q2
91
92.0
3.71
0.41
1.16
2.14
3.37
14.5%
2025Q1
90
88.7
3.81
0.40
1.16
2.24
3.50
18.5%
2024Q4
92
88.0
3.74
0.39
1.13
2.22
3.37
18.9%
2024Q3
92
87.6
3.93
0.51
1.12
2.30
3.60
18.7%
2024Q2
91
84.5
4.05
0.51
1.21
2.33
3.77
21.0%
2024Q1
91
82.2
3.98
0.58
1.24
2.16
3.63
24.0%
2023Q4
92
82.3
3.69
0.52
1.18
1.98
3.16
15.9%
2023Q3
92
80.4
3.62
0.59
1.06
1.98
2.93
12.3%
2023Q2
91
76.5
3.80
0.48
1.20
2.12
2.83
10.9%
2023Q1
90
66.7
4.14
0.63
1.18
2.33
3.21
7.9%
2022Q4
92
72.2
4.18
0.52
1.24
2.42
3.22
6.7%
2022Q3
92
81.0
3.99
0.46
1.26
2.27
3.29
0.7%
2022Q2
91
82.5
3.87
0.42
1.16
2.29
3.18
0.4%
2022Q1
90
84.6
3.80
0.48
1.23
2.08
3.32
0.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
29
D × 21E × 5F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-30
2026-03-26
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2026-04-30
2025-02-03
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-10
2025-02-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-03-10
2020-02-05
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0710
Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2020-03-20
2020-02-05
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2020-03-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FAHRNEY-KEEDY MEMORIAL HOME, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, CARRIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNES, HEATHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BISHOFF, MELANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUSSARD, BARBARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COETZEE, STEPHEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
DRAPER, JACQUELINE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FAHRNEY-KEEDY MEMORIAL HOME, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
HART, LESLIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISEY, KATHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RANDALL, COLLEEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REEDER, ELIZABETH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARD, STARLA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WASEEM, MUHAMMAD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN COETZEE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2015-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEATHER BARNES
CORPORATE OFFICER
25%
2023-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELANIE BISHOFF
CORPORATE OFFICER
25%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA BUSSARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARRIE ADAMS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLLEEN RANDALL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH REEDER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACQUELINE DRAPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY MORRISEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE HART
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MUHAMMAD WASEEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STARLA WARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 24043
acs median gross
0
$680
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
fmr
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24043
acs median gross
1
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
fmr
1
$961
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24043
acs median gross
2
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
fmr
2
$1,261
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24043
acs median gross
3
$1,355
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
fmr
3
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24043
acs median gross
4
$1,654
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
fmr
4
$1,901
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24043
acs median gross
5
$1,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
acs median gross
$1,147
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24043
acs recent mover gross
$1,231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs median gross
1
$668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs median gross
2
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs median gross
3
$1,761
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs median gross
4
$1,905
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs median gross
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21713
acs recent mover gross
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 21713
payment standard 110
0
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 90
0
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
safmr
0
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 110
1
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 90
1
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
safmr
1
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 110
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 90
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
safmr
2
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 110
3
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 90
3
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
safmr
3
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 110
4
$2,486
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
payment standard 90
4
$2,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21713
safmr
4
$2,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.